Francisco Alvarez leads the New York Mets (74-86) into a matchup versus the Philadelphia Phillies (89-72) after his two-homer outing in an 11-4 victory over the Phillies. It starts at 3:10 PM ET on Sunday.
The favored Mets (-122 moneyline odds to win) play at home against the Phillies (+103). The contest has a set total of 8.5.
The betting trends in the following article use the latest odds as of October 1, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Phillies Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -122 | +103 | 8.5 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have entered the game as favorites 92 times this season and won 51, or 55.4%, of those games.
- New York has a record of 36-35 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -122 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 55%.
- New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 67 of 161 opportunities.
- The Mets are 75-86-0 against the spread in their 161 chances this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.4 |
| HR | 17 |
| ERA | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 10.2 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have been chosen as underdogs in 50 games this year and have walked away with the win 23 times (46%) in those games.
- Philadelphia has a win-loss record of 16-21 when favored by +103 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 49.3% chance of pulling out a win.
- Contests with Philadelphia has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 74 of 161 chances this season.
- The Phillies are 72-89-0 against the spread in their 161 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 4.05 |
| K/9 | 10.5 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Jose Butto
- Butto’s team is 2-4-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed four innings while giving up four earned runs on four hits in a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
- In six starts, Butto has pitched through or past the fifth inning four times. He has a season average of 4.5 frames per outing.
- He has not pitched this season without allowing at least one earned run.
- Butto’s team has been victorious in 50% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 2-2.
- In games Butto has started, his team is 3-3.
- Games started by Butto have a 1-5-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 66 | 61.2 | 62 | 3.21 | 12 | 12 |
| Brooks Raley | 65 | 54.2 | 61 | 2.8 | 25 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 62 | 58 | 62 | 4.19 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Smith | 62 | 56.1 | 60 | 4.15 | 12 | 3 |
| Phil Bickford | 61 | 67.1 | 76 | 4.95 | 4 | 1 |
Phillies Probable Pitcher – Matt Strahm
- The Phillies will send Strahm (9-5) to the mound for his ninth start of the season as he aims for his 10th victory. He is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings pitched.
- The lefty last appeared in relief on Thursday, when he threw one inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing two earned runs while giving up three hits.
- Strahm has put up three starts this year where he pitched five or more innings.
- He has made 37 appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
- The Phillies have a 3-1 record in Strahm’s four starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Strahm’s team is 3-5 in his eight starts.
- Strahm has started eight contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in four of them.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 71 | 69 | 94 | 3.26 | 7 | 23 |
| Gregory Soto | 67 | 59.1 | 63 | 4.7 | 23 | 3 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 56 | 49.1 | 48 | 3.83 | 13 | 2 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 53 | 52.1 | 69 | 2.41 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Strahm | 47 | 86.2 | 106 | 3.32 | 11 | 2 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets are 35-23 this season in games when they send out at least two long balls.
- New York has collected five or more extra-base hits in 29 games this season, and has gone 23-6 in those contests.
- The club has strung together at least eight hits 89 times this season, and has a 59-30 record in those games.
- New York is 55-20 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Mets have gone 18-15 in the 33 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Phillies Hitting Trends
- They are 45-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Philadelphia has won 35 of its 45 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 67 of the 104 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Philadelphia has won 67 of its 84 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 38-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Mets vs. Phillies Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-122)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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