The Detroit Tigers (77-84) and Cleveland Guardians (76-85) play a rubber match on Sunday at 3:10 PM ET, with the series deadlocked at 1-1.
The Tigers are a home favorite (-122) against the Guardians (+103). The over/under for the game is 7.5 total runs.
The insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of October 1, 2023 at 3:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Tigers vs Guardians Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | -122 | +103 | 7.5 |
Tigers Betting Insights
- This season, the Tigers have won 26 out of the 40 games, or 65%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Detroit has a record of 20-12, a 62.5% win rate, when favored by -122 or more by bookmakers this season.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Tigers have a 55% chance to win.
- Detroit and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 79 of 162 opportunities.
- In 162 games with a spread this season, the Tigers are 88-74-0 ATS.
Tigers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 2.76 |
| K/9 | 9.2 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 80 games this year and have walked away with the win 36 times (45%) in those games.
- This season, Cleveland has been victorious 28 times in 64 chances when named as an underdog of at least +103 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 68 of its 160 opportunities.
- In 160 games with a line this season, the Guardians have a mark of 82-78-0 against the spread.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.2 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 5.28 |
| K/9 | 8.7 |
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Tigers Probable Pitcher – Eduardo Rodriguez
- When Rodriguez starts, his team is 14-11-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed seven innings without allowing a run on five hits in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics.
- Rodriguez has started 25 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 20 times. He averages 5.8 innings per appearance.
- He has six appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 25 chances this season.
- Rodriguez’s team has a record of 6-5 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- In games Rodriguez has started, his team is 13-12.
- In games Rodriguez has started this season, the teams are 11-14-0 at hitting the over.
Tigers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Foley | 69 | 69 | 55 | 2.61 | 28 | 7 |
| Alex Lange | 65 | 65 | 77 | 3.74 | 6 | 25 |
| José Cisnero | 61 | 59.1 | 70 | 5.31 | 14 | 2 |
| Tyler Holton | 57 | 85.1 | 74 | 2.11 | 14 | 1 |
| Will Vest | 42 | 47.1 | 55 | 3.04 | 10 | 2 |
Guardians Probable Pitcher – Lucas Giolito
- Giolito (8-14 with a 4.87 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 179 1/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Guardians, his 33rd of the season.
- His most recent time out came on Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds, when the right-hander threw 3 1/3 innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing four hits.
- Giolito has pitched five or more innings in a game 26 times this season entering this game.
- In four of his 32 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
- The Guardians have been the moneyline underdog in 20 of Giolito’s starts this season, and they went 5-15 in those games.
- Giolito’s team has won 10 of his 32 starts.
- Giolito has had 33 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in 16 of those matchups.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 73 | 72.2 | 64 | 3.22 | 0 | 44 |
| Trevor Stephan | 69 | 67.2 | 73 | 4.12 | 28 | 2 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 69 | 64.2 | 62 | 3.34 | 16 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | 65 | 66 | 83 | 3.27 | 22 | 6 |
| Eli Morgan | 61 | 67.1 | 75 | 4.01 | 8 | 1 |
Tigers Hitting Trends
- The Tigers have hit two or more homers in 47 games this season, and are 32-15 in those outings.
- Detroit has had at least five extra-base hits in 31 games this season, and has gone 24-7 in those contests.
- The team is 67-26 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
- Detroit is 55-16 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Tigers have drawn five or more walks in 40 games this season, and are 27-13 in those contests.
Guardians Hitting Trends
- They are 22-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 22-7.
- In 101 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 53-48.
- In 61 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 45-16.
- In 40 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 22-18
Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Tigers (-122)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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