The Atlanta Braves (102-56) will look to Ronald Acuna Jr., riding an 11-game hitting streak, against the Chicago Cubs (82-76) at 7:20 PM ET on Thursday, at Truist Park.
The favored Braves (-144 moneyline odds) play at home against the Cubs (+121). The over/under for this game is 9.5.
The insights in this article use the latest odds as of September 28, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Cubs Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -144 | +121 | 9.5 |
Braves Betting Insights
- This season, the Braves have been favored 144 times and won 94, or 65.3%, of those games.
- Atlanta is 78-32 this season when entering a game favored by -144 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 59%.
- Atlanta and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 90 of 158 opportunities.
- The Braves have an ATS record of 82-76-0 in 158 games with a spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.9 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 5.70 |
| K/9 | 7.9 |
Cubs Betting Insights
- The Cubs have been chosen as underdogs in 65 games this year and have walked away with the win 29 times (44.6%) in those games.
- This season, Chicago has come away with a win 14 times in 28 chances when named as an underdog of at least +121 or longer on the moneyline.
- The Cubs have an implied victory probability of 45.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Contests with Chicago has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 78 of 158 chances this season.
- The Cubs are 76-82-0 against the spread in their 158 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Cubs Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.2 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 4.55 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – A.J. Smith-Shawver
- Smith-Shawver and his team have a record of 2-2-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, July 30, when he threw five innings, giving up three earned runs while allowing four hits against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Smith-Shawver’s team has won 75% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (3-1).
- Smith-Shawver’s team has a 3-1 record in his starts this season.
- Games started by Smith-Shawver have a 3-1-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 67 | 62.2 | 80 | 3.73 | 19 | 10 |
| Pierce Johnson | 65 | 61.2 | 87 | 4.52 | 11 | 13 |
| Brad Hand | 58 | 52.2 | 57 | 5.13 | 4 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | 58 | 59.1 | 80 | 3.34 | 8 | 5 |
| Joe Jiménez | 56 | 54.2 | 71 | 3.13 | 12 | 0 |
Cubs Probable Pitcher – Marcus Stroman
- Stroman gets the start for the Cubs, his 25th of the season. He is 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 117 strikeouts through 134 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last outing on Saturday against the Colorado Rockies, the right-hander threw three innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Stroman will try to pick up his 19th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.2 innings per appearance.
- In eight of his appearances this season he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Cubs have a 5-4 record in Stroman’s nine starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Stroman’s team has put together a 13-11 record over his 24 starts.
- Stroman has had 24 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in nine of those outings.
Cubs Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Merryweather | 67 | 70.1 | 96 | 3.45 | 17 | 2 |
| Jose Cuas | 67 | 65 | 71 | 4.02 | 10 | 1 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 66 | 63.2 | 77 | 3.53 | 28 | 4 |
| Daniel Palencia | 26 | 26.1 | 29 | 4.78 | 2 | 0 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 22 | 85.1 | 77 | 4.54 | 2 | 0 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have a 67-22 record this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
- Atlanta is 39-6 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 79-33 in the games this season it has strung together at least eight hits.
- Atlanta has an 82-22 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Braves have gone 30-12 over the 42 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Cubs Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 64 games this season and are 41-23 in those matchups.
- Chicago has won 28 of its 32 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 71 of the 102 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 85 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 65-20.
- They have won 29 of their 51 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Braves vs. Cubs Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-144)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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