The Miami Marlins (82-76) visit the New York Mets (72-86) at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, with both teams hoping to win the series.
The Marlins are the road favorite (-137) versus the Mets (+115). The over/under in the game is set at 7.5 total runs.
The insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of September 28, 2023 at 7:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Mets Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -137 | +115 | 7.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- This season, the Marlins have won 41 out of the 71 games, or 57.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Miami is 31-12 this season when entering a game favored by -137 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Marlins, based on the moneyline, is 57.8%.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 74 of 158 opportunities.
- In 158 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 72-86-0 ATS.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 5.26 |
| K/9 | 8.3 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been chosen as underdogs in 68 games this year and have walked away with the win 22 times (32.4%) in those games.
- New York has a win-loss record of 10-30 when favored by +115 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- The Mets have an implied victory probability of 46.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- New York and its opponents have hit the over in 66 of its 159 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- The Mets are 73-86-0 against the spread in their 159 games that had a posted line this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.9 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 3.66 |
| K/9 | 9.1 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- When Luzardo starts, his team is 17-14-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed three hits in five innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday.
- Luzardo will look to finish five or more innings for the seventh start in a row.
- He has made 31 appearances and finished seven of them without allowing an earned run.
- Luzardo’s team has won 66.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (8-4).
- Luzardo’s team is 19-12 when he starts this season.
- In games Luzardo has started this season, the teams are 17-12-2 at hitting the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Robertson | 60 | 63.1 | 75 | 3.13 | 8 | 19 |
| Dylan Floro | 59 | 56.2 | 58 | 4.76 | 9 | 7 |
| Andrew Nardi | 58 | 56 | 71 | 2.57 | 17 | 3 |
| Steven Okert | 56 | 57 | 72 | 4.58 | 12 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 56 | 54.2 | 75 | 4.12 | 2 | 15 |
Mets Probable Pitcher – David Peterson
- Peterson (3-8 with a 5.37 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Mets, his 21st of the season.
- In his last time out on Thursday, Sept. 21 against the Philadelphia Phillies, the left-hander threw four innings, giving up four earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Peterson will try to collect his 12th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 4.0 innings per appearance.
- In six of his appearances this season he did not give up an earned run.
- The Mets have been the moneyline underdog in 11 of Peterson’s starts this season, and they went 3-8 in those matchups.
- Peterson’s team has won six of his 20 starts.
- Peterson’s starts went over the run total 12 times in 20 games with a set total this season.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 65 | 60.2 | 61 | 2.97 | 12 | 11 |
| Brooks Raley | 64 | 54 | 59 | 2.83 | 24 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 62 | 58 | 62 | 4.19 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Smith | 61 | 55.1 | 60 | 4.23 | 12 | 3 |
| Phil Bickford | 60 | 66.1 | 73 | 5.02 | 4 | 1 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have a 28-22 record in games this season when they hit at least two home runs.
- Miami has racked up five or more extra-base hits in 31 games this season, and has gone 28-3 in those contests.
- The team has totaled at least eight hits in 114 games this season, and is 67-47 in those contests.
- Miami has a 57-14 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Marlins have drawn five or more walks in 37 games this season, and are 24-13 in those contests.
Mets Hitting Trends
- They are 34-23 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- New York has won 23 of its 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 88 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 58-30.
- New York has won 54 of its 74 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In 33 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 18-15
Marlins vs. Mets Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (+115)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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