Tigers vs. Royals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 28, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 28, 2023

The Detroit Tigers (74-83) hope to sweep the Kansas City Royals (54-103) on Thursday at Comerica Park, beginning at 1:10 PM ET.

Oddsmakers project the Tigers as a small favorite (-110 moneyline odds to win) against the Royals (-109). The contest has a set total of 7.

The betting trends in the article below reflect odds as of September 28, 2023 at 1:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Tigers vs Royals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Tigers -110 -109 7

Tigers Betting Insights

  • This season, the Tigers have won 24 out of the 38 games, or 63.2%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Detroit has a record of 24-15 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -110 on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 52.4% chance of a victory for the Tigers.
  • So far this season, Detroit and its opponents have hit the over in 76 of 158 games with a total.
  • The Tigers are 85-73-0 against the spread in their 158 chances this season.

Tigers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 9
ERA 3.72
K/9 9.9

Royals Betting Insights

  • The Royals have won in 47, or 34.6%, of the 136 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, Kansas City has been victorious 47 times in 136 chances when named as an underdog of at least -109 or longer on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Royals have a 52.2% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Kansas City’s games have gone over the total in 76 of its 157 opportunities.
  • In 157 games with a line this season, the Royals have a mark of 71-86-0 against the spread.

Royals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 11
ERA 4.25
K/9 7.9

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Tigers Probable Pitcher – Sawyer Gipson-Long

  • Gipson-Long and his team have yet to cover the spread in any of their three chances this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed five innings while giving up one earned run on four hits in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics.
  • Gipson-Long has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • When Gipson-Long starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 2-1.
  • Gipson-Long’s team has won two of his three starts.
  • In Gipson-Long’s three starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.

Tigers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Jason Foley 68 68 55 2.65 28 7
Alex Lange 63 63.1 76 3.84 5 25
José Cisnero 59 56.1 66 5.59 14 2
Tyler Holton 55 82.1 74 2.19 13 1
Will Vest 41 45.1 53 3.18 10 2

Royals Probable Pitcher – Cole Ragans

  • The Royals will send Ragans (7-4) to the mound to make his 13th start of the season. He is 7-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Saturday against the Houston Astros, the left-hander threw six innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering three hits.
  • Ragans will aim to pitch five or more innings for his 12th straight appearance. He’s averaging 3.2 frames per outing.
  • He has had 15 appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
  • The Royals are 4-4 in Ragans’ eight starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Ragans’ team is 6-6 over his 12 starts.
  • Ragans has had 12 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and five of those games finished over the total.

Royals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Carlos Hernandez 58 68.2 76 4.98 16 4
Taylor Clarke 54 58 65 5.90 12 3
Tucker Davidson 35 50 45 6.12 2 2
Amir Garrett 25 24.1 28 3.33 0 0
Jackson Kowar 22 26.1 28 6.15 0 0

Tigers Hitting Trends

  • The Tigers have put up at least two long balls in 45 games this season, and are 31-14 in those outings.
  • Detroit has gone 24-6 in its 30 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team is 64-25 in the games this season it has totaled eight or more hits.
  • Detroit has a 52-15 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Tigers are 24-13 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Royals Hitting Trends

  • They have won 21 of the 39 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Kansas City has gone 17-17 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 87 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 39-48.
  • In 55 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 38-17.
  • They have a 9-13 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Tigers (-110)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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