The New York Mets (71-85) and Miami Marlins (81-75) clash on Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET, opening a three-game series at Citi Field.
The Mets are the home favorite (-133) versus the Marlins (+112). The contest has an over/under of 8.
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of September 27, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -133 | +112 | 8 |
Mets Betting Insights
- This season, the Mets have won 50 out of the 90 games, or 55.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
- New York has a record of 28-30 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -133 on the moneyline.
- The Mets have a 57.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- New York’s games have gone over the total in 65 of its 157 chances.
- The Mets are 72-85-0 against the spread in their 157 chances this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been victorious in 40, or 47.1%, of the 85 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- This season, Miami has been victorious 23 times in 50 chances when named as an underdog of at least +112 or longer on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 47.2% chance of pulling out a win.
- Miami’s games have gone over the total in 73 of its 156 opportunities.
- The Marlins are 71-85-0 against the spread in their 156 games that had a posted line this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.8 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 7.9 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Joey Lucchesi
- When Lucchesi starts, his team is 4-5-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander last pitched on Tuesday, Sept. 19, when he gave up two earned runs and allowed six hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins.
- Lucchesi has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has made eight appearances and finished three of them without allowing an earned run.
- Lucchesi’s team has a record of 1-4 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Lucchesi’s team has a 4-4 record in his starts this season.
- Out of Lucchesi’s nine starts with a total this season, five have hit the over.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 64 | 59.2 | 59 | 2.87 | 12 | 11 |
| Brooks Raley | 63 | 53 | 58 | 2.89 | 24 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 61 | 57 | 61 | 4.26 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Smith | 60 | 54.1 | 59 | 4.31 | 12 | 3 |
| Phil Bickford | 59 | 65.1 | 71 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Braxton Garrett
- Garrett aims for his 10th victory when he makes the start for the Marlins, his 29th of the season. He is 9-6 with a 3.53 ERA and 154 strikeouts in 155 2/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent appearance was on Tuesday, Sept. 19 against the New York Mets, when the left-hander went six innings, surrendering no earned runs while allowing five hits.
- Garrett is looking for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 frames per start.
- He is looking to keep a streak of two games without surrendering an earned run alive.
- The Marlins are 8-5 in Garrett’s 13 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Garrett’s team has won 20 of his 28 starts.
- Garrett has had 28 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and 13 of those games hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Floro | 59 | 56.2 | 58 | 4.76 | 9 | 7 |
| David Robertson | 59 | 62.1 | 72 | 3.18 | 8 | 19 |
| Andrew Nardi | 57 | 55 | 69 | 2.62 | 17 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | 55 | 56 | 69 | 4.66 | 12 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 55 | 53 | 73 | 4.25 | 2 | 15 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets have a 33-22 record in games this season when they smash at least two homers.
- New York has gone 22-6 in its 28 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has put up eight or more hits 87 times this season, and has a 57-30 record in those games.
- New York is 53-20 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Mets have drawn five or more walks in 33 games this season, and are 18-15 in those contests.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They are 27-22 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Miami has gone 28-3 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 67-46 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 71 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 57-14.
- In 36 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 23-13
Mets vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-133)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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