The Houston Astros (86-72) and Seattle Mariners (85-72) square off on Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
The Mariners are an underdog (+101 moneyline odds) when they host the Astros (-121). The total for the game is 8 total runs.
The betting trends in the article below use the latest odds as of September 27, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Astros vs Mariners Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | -121 | +101 | 8 |
Astros Betting Insights
- This season, the Astros have won 59 out of the 115 games, or 51.3%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Houston is 55-48 this season when entering a game favored by -121 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Astros, based on the moneyline, is 54.8%.
- Houston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 83 of 158 opportunities.
- The Astros are 77-81-0 ATS in their 158 games with a spread this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 4.60 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
Mariners Betting Insights
- The Mariners have won in 22, or 44.9%, of the 49 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This season, Seattle has come away with a win 18 times in 35 chances when named as an underdog of at least +101 or worse on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mariners have a 49.8% chance of pulling out a win.
- Contests with Seattle has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 80 of 157 chances this season.
- The Mariners have an against the spread record of 74-83-0 in 157 games with a line this season.
Mariners Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 4.15 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
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Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez
- When Valdez starts, his team is 13-17-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up six earned runs and allowed four hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Kansas City Royals.
- Valdez will look to finish five or more innings for the 11th start in a row.
- He has made 30 appearances and finished six of them without allowing an earned run.
- Valdez’s team has been victorious in 50% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 14-14.
- Valdez’s team has won 16 of his 30 starts this season.
- Games started by Valdez have a 16-14-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 68 | 69.1 | 95 | 1.82 | 24 | 4 |
| Héctor Neris | 66 | 64.2 | 73 | 1.81 | 28 | 2 |
| Rafael Montero | 66 | 66.1 | 78 | 5.02 | 10 | 1 |
| Phil Maton | 65 | 64 | 72 | 3.09 | 8 | 1 |
| Kendall Graveman | 65 | 65 | 65 | 3.18 | 12 | 8 |
Mariners Probable Pitcher – Bryce Miller
- Miller gets the start for the Mariners, his 25th of the season. He is 8-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 127 1/3 innings pitched.
- The righty’s most recent appearance was on Saturday against the Texas Rangers, when he threw 4 1/3 innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing six hits.
- Miller has pitched five or more innings in a game 18 times this year heading into this game.
- In six of his appearances this season he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Mariners are 3-8 in Miller’s 11 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Over Miller’s 24 starts, his team is 13-11.
- Miller has had 24 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and 12 of those matchups hit the over.
Mariners Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brash | 75 | 69 | 105 | 2.87 | 24 | 4 |
| Justin Topa | 72 | 66.1 | 59 | 2.44 | 23 | 3 |
| Gabe Speier | 65 | 51 | 58 | 4.06 | 17 | 1 |
| Andres Munoz | 50 | 47.2 | 65 | 2.83 | 14 | 13 |
| Tayler Saucedo | 49 | 46.1 | 41 | 3.69 | 3 | 1 |
Astros Hitting Trends
- The Astros have a 41-16 record in games this season when they hit two or more homers.
- Houston is 28-10 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has put up eight or more hits 109 times this season, and has a 79-30 record in those games.
- Houston is 74-16 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Astros are 40-10 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Mariners Hitting Trends
- They have won 42 of the 58 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Seattle has gone 27-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have won 67 of the 98 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Seattle has a 71-13 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 34-16 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Astros vs. Mariners Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mariners (+101)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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