Elly De La Cruz leads the Cincinnati Reds (81-77) into a contest against the Cleveland Guardians (74-84), after his two-homer performance in an 11-7 victory over the Guardians, starting at 6:10 PM ET on Wednesday.
The Guardians are favored (-129 moneyline odds) when they host the Reds (+108). The over/under for this game is set at 8.
The insights in what follows use the latest odds as of September 27, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Guardians vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | -129 | +108 | 8 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have entered the game as favorites 76 times this season and won 38, or 50%, of those games.
- Cleveland has entered 53 games this season favored by -129 or more and is 25-28 in those contests.
- The Guardians have a 56.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 66 of its 157 chances.
- In 157 games with a spread this season, the Guardians are 81-76-0 ATS.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 4.45 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been underdogs in 117 games this season and have come away with the win 58 times (49.6%) in those contests.
- Cincinnati has a mark of 40-47 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +108 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 48.1% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 77 of its 158 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- The Reds are 91-67-0 against the spread in their 158 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.4 |
| HR | 18 |
| ERA | 5.56 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Shane Bieber
- Bieber’s team is 9-11-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in five innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday.
- Bieber has pitched five or more innings in two straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has made 20 appearances and finished four of them without allowing an earned run.
- Bieber’s team has a record of 7-8 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Bieber’s team is 8-12 when he starts this season.
- In games Bieber has started this season, the teams are 8-11-1 at hitting the over.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 71 | 70.2 | 64 | 3.18 | 0 | 42 |
| Trevor Stephan | 68 | 66.2 | 72 | 3.91 | 27 | 2 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 68 | 63.2 | 61 | 3.39 | 15 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | 63 | 64 | 81 | 3.38 | 20 | 6 |
| Eli Morgan | 60 | 66.1 | 74 | 3.93 | 8 | 1 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Andrew Abbott
- Abbott makes the start for the Reds, his 21st of the season. He is 8-5 with a 3.70 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 107 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last appearance on Friday, the left-hander tossed 4 1/3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
- Abbott is trying to pick up his 14th start of five or more innings this year in this game.
- He has had five appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Reds have been the underdog on the moneyline in 11 of Abbott’s starts this season, and they went 9-2 in those matchups.
- Abbott’s team has won 14 of his 20 starts.
- Abbott has had 20 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in seven of those outings.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 70 | 74 | 68 | 3.28 | 23 | 3 |
| Alexis Diaz | 68 | 67.1 | 86 | 2.94 | 2 | 38 |
| Buck Farmer | 67 | 73 | 68 | 4.07 | 10 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | 66 | 61.1 | 67 | 3.08 | 9 | 1 |
| Lucas Sims | 64 | 59.2 | 71 | 3.17 | 23 | 3 |
Guardians Hitting Trends
- The Guardians have a 21-9 record in games this season when they smash two or more homers.
- Cleveland is 21-7 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has collected at least eight hits in 98 games this season, and is 51-47 in those contests.
- Cleveland is 44-16 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Guardians are 21-18 in the 39 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 54 games this season and are 38-16 in those matchups.
- Cincinnati has won 31 of its 41 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 71 of the 101 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Cincinnati has won 72 of its 88 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 26 of their 50 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Guardians (-129)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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