NFL action in Week 4 will see Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers take on the Detroit Lions at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday.
Aaron Jones Player Props vs the Lions
| Rush Yds Over/Under | Rush Yds Over Payout | Rec. Yds Over/Under | Rec. Yds Over Payout | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.5 | -120 | 15.5 | -125 | +135 |
| Rush Yds Over/Under | Rush Yds Over Payout | Rec. Yds Over/Under | Rec. Yds Over Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.5 | -120 | 15.5 | -125 |
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2022 Betting Outcomes
| Rushing | Receiving | |
|---|---|---|
| Games Over Yards Prop | 7 | 7 |
| Games w/1+ TDs | 2 | 4 |
| Games w/2+ TDs | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Jones’ Rushing Trends
- Jones took 213 carries for 1,121 rushing yards a season ago (65.9 per game) and two touchdowns. He also caught 59 passes for 395 yards (23.2 per game) with five touchdowns through the air.
- He was sixth in the NFL with 5.3 rushing yards per attempt last season (1,121 yards on 213 carries).
- Jones churned out 1,121 rushing yards to rank 10th in the league last season, and his two TDs on the ground ranked 62nd.
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Jones’ Receiving Trends
- With 395 yards on 59 receptions, Jones was 133rd in the NFL with 6.7 yards per catch last season.
This Week’s Predictions
| Jones (2022) | League AVG (2022) | vs Lions (2022) | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.5+ Rushing Yards | 52.9% | 55.9% | 65.5% | 56.4% |
| 1+ Rushing TDs | 11.8% | 35.1% | 44.8% | 23% |
| 2+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 3.4% |
| 15.5+ Receiving Yards | 70.6% | 82.7% | 81.5% | 74.8% |
| 1+ Receiving TDs | 23.5% | 22.3% | 27.2% | 24.3% |
| 2+ Receiving TDs | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5% |
The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.
The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).
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