Orioles vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 26, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 25, 2023

The Baltimore Orioles (97-59) and Washington Nationals (69-88) clash on Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET, opening a two-game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The Orioles are the home favorite (-247) versus the Nationals (+202). The game’s total is set at 7.5.

The insights in the following article reference odds valid as of September 26, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Orioles vs Nationals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Orioles -247 +202 7.5

Orioles Betting Insights

  • The Orioles have won 51, or 66.2%, of the 77 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Baltimore has entered four games this season favored by -247 or more and is 3-1 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 71.2% chance of a victory for the Orioles.
  • Games involving Baltimore has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 81 of 156 chances this season.
  • In 156 games with a spread this season, the Orioles are 94-62-0 ATS.

Orioles Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 8
ERA 3.64
K/9 6.9

Nationals Betting Insights

  • The Nationals have come away with 59 wins in the 144 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Washington has been victorious eight times in 26 chances when named as an underdog of at least +202 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 33.1% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Washington and its opponents have hit the over in 75 of its 156 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Nationals are 82-74-0 against the spread in their 156 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 11
ERA 5.50
K/9 6.8

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Orioles Probable Pitcher – Kyle Bradish

  • Bradish and his team are 17-11-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he allowed two hits in six scoreless innings against the Houston Astros.
  • Bradish has pitched five or more innings in seven straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has made 28 appearances and finished eight of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Bradish’s team is 12-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Bradish’s team has won 18 of his 28 starts this season.
  • In Bradish’s 28 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 12 times.

Orioles Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yeinier Cano 68 70.2 60 2.17 30 7
Cionel Pérez 62 52.1 43 3.61 10 3
Jorge López 58 57.1 47 6.12 10 3
Danny Coulombe 58 49 55 2.76 22 2
Shintaro Fujinami 54 77 82 7.25 5 2

Nationals Probable Pitcher – Josiah Gray

  • Gray makes the start for the Nationals, his 30th of the season. He is 8-12 with a 4.00 ERA and 136 strikeouts through 153 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last appearance came on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, when the righty went five innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up five hits.
  • Gray will look to build on a three-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.3 innings per appearance).
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in three of his 29 appearances this season.
  • The Nationals are 10-17 in Gray’s 27 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Gray’s team is 12-17 over his 29 starts.
  • Gray has started 29 games with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 14 of them.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Kyle Finnegan 64 67.1 61 3.74 8 27
Hunter Harvey 55 58 64 2.79 19 10
Jordan Weems 48 52.1 56 3.27 7 0
Andres Machado 41 46.2 39 5.21 4 0
Jose Ferrer 37 33 24 4.64 5 0

Orioles Hitting Trends

  • The Orioles are 43-14 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Baltimore has racked up at least five extra-base hits in 40 games this season, and has gone 37-3 in those outings.
  • The club is 73-28 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
  • Baltimore is 76-12 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Orioles have drawn at least five walks in 39 games this season, and are 30-9 in those contests.

Nationals Hitting Trends

  • They are 25-15 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Washington has won 19 of its 25 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 55 of the 102 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • In 67 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 47-20.
  • They have a 17-12 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Orioles vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Orioles (-247)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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