The Cincinnati Reds (80-77) will look to TJ Friedl, on a three-game homer streak, against the Cleveland Guardians (74-83) at 6:10 PM ET on Tuesday, at Progressive Field.
The Guardians are the home favorite (-122) against the Reds (+101). The matchup has an over/under set at 7.5 total runs.
The betting trends in the following article use the latest odds as of September 26, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Guardians vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | -122 | +101 | 7.5 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have won 38, or 50.7%, of the 75 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Cleveland has a record of 30-33, a 47.6% win rate, when favored by -122 or more by bookmakers this season.
- The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 55% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 65 of its 156 chances.
- The Guardians are 81-75-0 against the spread this season.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.1 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 3.72 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 116 games this year and have walked away with the win 57 times (49.1%) in those games.
- Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 46-53 when favored by +101 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- The Reds have an implied victory probability of 49.8% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 76 of its 157 opportunities.
- The Reds have posted a record of 90-67-0 against the spread this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 5.73 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Lucas Giolito
- Giolito and his team have a record of 16-16-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed seven hits in 5 1/3 innings pitched against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday.
- Giolito has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has finished four appearances without allowing an earned run in 31 chances this season.
- Giolito’s team has been victorious in 41.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 5-7.
- Giolito’s team has a 10-22 record in his starts this season.
- Games Giolito has started this season hit the over 15 times in 32 chances.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 71 | 70.2 | 64 | 3.18 | 0 | 42 |
| Trevor Stephan | 68 | 66.2 | 72 | 3.91 | 27 | 2 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 68 | 63.2 | 61 | 3.39 | 15 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | 63 | 64 | 81 | 3.38 | 20 | 6 |
| Eli Morgan | 59 | 65.1 | 72 | 3.86 | 8 | 1 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Hunter Greene
- The Reds are sending Greene (4-6) to the mound to make his 21st start of the season. He is 4-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last appearance on Wednesday, the righty went seven innings against the Minnesota Twins, allowing one earned run while surrendering three hits.
- Greene will aim to go five or more innings for his fifth straight start. He’s averaging 5.2 innings per outing.
- In five of his 20 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Reds have a 6-7 record in Greene’s 13 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Greene’s team is 8-12 in his 20 starts.
- Greene has started 20 contests with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in nine of them.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 70 | 74 | 68 | 3.28 | 23 | 3 |
| Alexis Diaz | 67 | 66.1 | 86 | 2.98 | 2 | 37 |
| Buck Farmer | 67 | 73 | 68 | 4.07 | 10 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | 65 | 59.1 | 66 | 3.19 | 9 | 1 |
| Lucas Sims | 63 | 58.2 | 70 | 3.22 | 22 | 3 |
Guardians Hitting Trends
- The Guardians are 21-8 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Cleveland is 21-7 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has totaled at least eight hits in 97 games this season, and is 51-46 in those contests.
- Cleveland is 44-15 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Guardians have drawn at least five walks in 39 games this season, and are 21-18 in those contests.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They are 37-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Cincinnati has won 30 of its 40 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 70-30 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Cincinnati has a 71-16 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won 25 of their 49 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Guardians (-122)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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