Jon Berti leads the Miami Marlins (81-75) into a contest versus the New York Mets (71-85) following his two-homer showing in a 6-1 victory over the Brewers. It starts at 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday.
The Mets are an underdog at home (+108) versus the Marlins (-130). The contest has a set total of 7.5.
The insights in the following article reference odds valid as of September 26, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Mets Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -130 | +108 | 7.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 70 times this season and won 41, or 58.6%, of those games.
- Miami is 33-17 this season when entering a game favored by -130 or more on the moneyline.
- The Marlins have a 56.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Miami’s games have gone over the total in 73 of its 156 chances.
- In 156 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 71-85-0 ATS.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.8 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 7.9 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been underdogs in 67 games this season and have come away with the win 21 times (31.3%) in those contests.
- This season, New York has come away with a win 10 times in 43 chances when named as an underdog of at least +108 or longer on the moneyline.
- The Mets have an implied victory probability of 48.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- New York and its opponents have gone over in 65 of its 157 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Mets have posted a record of 72-85-0 against the spread this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Braxton Garrett
- When Garrett starts, his team is 14-14-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander gave up no earned runs and allowed five hits in six innings pitched against the New York Mets on Tuesday, Sept. 19.
- Garrett will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
- If he manages to end his start without allowing an earned run, he’d extend his streak of appearances with no earned runs to three.
- Garrett’s team is 12-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Garrett’s team is 20-8 when he starts this season.
- In Garrett’s 28 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 13 times.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 67 | 75.2 | 101 | 2.38 | 24 | 10 |
| David Robertson | 59 | 62.1 | 72 | 3.18 | 8 | 19 |
| Andrew Nardi | 57 | 55 | 69 | 2.62 | 17 | 2 |
| A.J. Puk | 55 | 53 | 73 | 4.25 | 2 | 15 |
| Steven Okert | 55 | 56 | 69 | 4.66 | 12 | 0 |
Mets Probable Pitcher – Joey Lucchesi
- Lucchesi (3-0) gets the starting nod for the Mets in his ninth start of the season. He has a 2.88 ERA in 40 2/3 innings pitched, with 29 strikeouts.
- The lefty’s last time out was on Tuesday, Sept. 19 against the Miami Marlins, when he went 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up six hits.
- Lucchesi will look to pitch five or more innings for his fourth straight appearance. He’s averaging five frames per outing.
- He has had three appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
- The Mets are 3-1 in Lucchesi’s four starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Lucchesi’s team is 4-4 in his eight starts.
- Lucchesi has had nine starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and five of those matchups hit the over.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 64 | 59.2 | 59 | 2.87 | 12 | 11 |
| Brooks Raley | 63 | 53 | 58 | 2.89 | 24 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 61 | 57 | 61 | 4.26 | 10 | 1 |
| Drew Smith | 60 | 54.1 | 59 | 4.31 | 12 | 3 |
| Phil Bickford | 59 | 65.1 | 71 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have put up two or more homers in 49 games this season, and are 27-22 in those contests.
- Miami has gone 28-3 in its 31 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The team is 67-46 in the games this season it has put up at least eight hits.
- Miami is 57-14 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Marlins are 23-13 in the 36 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Mets Hitting Trends
- They have won 33 of the 55 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- New York has gone 22-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have won 57 of the 87 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- New York has won 53 of its 73 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 18 of their 33 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Marlins vs. Mets Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (+108)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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