The Seattle Mariners (84-71) host the Houston Astros (85-71) at 9:40 PM ET on Monday, in an outing between two teams on losing streaks. The Mariners have dropped three in a row, and the Astros three straight.
The favored Mariners (-127 moneyline odds to win) host the Astros (+106). The contest has a set total of 7.5.
The betting insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 25, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mariners vs Astros Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | -127 | +106 | 7.5 |
Mariners Betting Insights
- This season, the Mariners have won 62 out of the 106 games, or 58.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Seattle is 49-33 this season when entering a game favored by -127 or more on the moneyline.
- The Mariners have a 55.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Seattle’s games have gone over the total in 79 of its 155 chances.
- The Mariners have an ATS record of 73-82-0 in 155 games with a spread this season.
Mariners Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 4.25 |
| K/9 | 8.4 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have been chosen as underdogs in 40 games this year and have walked away with the win 26 times (65%) in those games.
- Houston has a mark of 15-11 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +106 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Astros have an implied victory probability of 48.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Houston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 82 of its 156 opportunities.
- The Astros are 76-80-0 against the spread in their 156 games that had a posted line this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.9 |
| HR | 17 |
| ERA | 4.50 |
| K/9 | 9.9 |
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Mariners Probable Pitcher – Luis Castillo
- Castillo and his team are 11-20-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched on Wednesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Oakland Athletics.
- Castillo has 31 starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has made 31 appearances and finished nine of them without allowing an earned run.
- Castillo’s team has been victorious in 66.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 18-9.
- Castillo’s team has won 19 of his 31 starts.
- In games Castillo has started this season, the teams are 17-14-0 at hitting the over.
Mariners Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brash | 74 | 67 | 103 | 2.96 | 23 | 4 |
| Justin Topa | 71 | 66.1 | 59 | 2.31 | 23 | 3 |
| Gabe Speier | 65 | 51 | 58 | 4.06 | 17 | 1 |
| Andres Munoz | 49 | 46.2 | 65 | 2.7 | 14 | 13 |
| Tayler Saucedo | 48 | 45.2 | 41 | 3.74 | 3 | 1 |
Astros Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander
- Verlander makes the start for the Astros, his 26th of the season. He is 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 149 1/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent appearance came on Tuesday, Sept. 19 against the Baltimore Orioles, when the righty went six innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up eight hits.
- Verlander is aiming for his 19th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages six innings per start.
- He has had five appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Astros have a 2-3 record in Verlander’s five starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Verlander’s team has won 13 of his 25 starts.
- Verlander’s starts hit the over on the run total 11 times in 25 games with a set total this season.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 67 | 68.1 | 94 | 1.84 | 24 | 4 |
| Héctor Neris | 66 | 64.2 | 73 | 1.81 | 28 | 2 |
| Kendall Graveman | 65 | 65 | 65 | 3.18 | 12 | 8 |
| Rafael Montero | 65 | 66.1 | 78 | 4.88 | 10 | 1 |
| Phil Maton | 64 | 63 | 70 | 3.14 | 8 | 1 |
Mariners Hitting Trends
- The Mariners have a 42-16 record in games this season when they belt at least two homers.
- Seattle is 27-4 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has put up eight or more hits 97 times this season, and has a 66-31 record in those games.
- Seattle has a 70-13 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Mariners are 34-16 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Astros Hitting Trends
- They have won 40 of the 56 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Houston has gone 27-10 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 78-29 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 89 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 73-16.
- In 50 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 40-10
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mariners (-127)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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