Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 21, 2023

The Chicago Cubs (79-73) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81) at 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, with both teams hoping to win the series.

The Pirates (+147 underdog moneyline odds to win) visit the Cubs (-177). The over/under for this game is 8.5.

The betting trends in the following article reference odds valid as of September 21, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -177 +147 8.5

Cubs Betting Insights

  • This season, the Cubs have been favored 88 times and won 49, or 55.7%, of those games.
  • Chicago is 7-8 this season when entering a game favored by -177 or more on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 63.9% chance of a victory for the Cubs.
  • Chicago and its opponents have hit the over in 74 of its 152 games with a total this season.
  • The Cubs have an ATS record of 72-80-0 in 152 games with a spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 14
ERA 4.90
K/9 9.5

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have won in 51, or 42.5%, of the 120 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 19 times in 38 chances when named as an underdog of at least +147 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 40.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 81 of its 152 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Pirates have posted a record of 76-76-0 against the spread this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.3
HR 10
ERA 5.42
K/9 6.9

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Kyle Hendricks

  • Hendricks and his team are 10-12-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed seven hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Hendricks has pitched five or more innings in eight straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has finished two appearances without allowing an earned run in 22 chances this season.
  • Hendricks’ team has won 63.6% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (7-4).
  • Hendricks’ team is 12-10 when he starts this season.
  • Games Hendricks has started this season hit the over 10 times in 22 chances.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Mark Leiter Jr. 65 63.1 77 3.41 28 4
Julian Merryweather 63 67 91 3.09 16 1
Jose Cuas 63 61.2 68 4.23 8 0
Daniel Palencia 23 24.1 26 4.81 1 0
Hayden Wesneski 21 84.1 77 4.59 2 0

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Juan Carlos Oviedo

  • Oviedo gets the start for the Pirates, his 31st of the season. He is 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 166 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The righty’s most recent appearance was on Friday against the New York Yankees, when he went five innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up four hits.
  • Oviedo heads into this matchup with 22 outings of five or more innings pitched this campaign.
  • In three of his appearances this season he did not surrender an earned run.
  • The Pirates have been the moneyline underdog in 23 of Oviedo’s starts this season, and they went 7-16 in those games.
  • Over Oviedo’s 30 starts, his team is 12-18.
  • Oviedo has had 30 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in 14 of those outings.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
David Bednar 60 63 72 1.86 0 36
Colin Holderman 56 55.1 58 3.42 27 2
Jose Hernandez 44 46.1 58 4.47 5 0
Ryan Borucki 31 36 31 2.75 6 0
Carmen Mlodzinski 29 31.2 30 1.99 8 0

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs have a 40-22 record in games this season when they belt at least two home runs.
  • Chicago has collected at least five extra-base hits in 32 games this season, and has gone 28-4 in those contests.
  • The team has strung together at least eight hits in 99 games this season, and is 70-29 in those contests.
  • Chicago is 63-17 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Cubs are 27-21 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 38 games this season and are 29-9 in those matchups.
  • Pittsburgh has won 24 of its 30 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have a record of 51-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 57 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 45-12.
  • They have won 21 of their 42 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-177)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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