Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 21, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies (83-69) and New York Mets (71-81) battle in NL East action, on Thursday at 7:15 PM ET.

The Phillies are a home favorite (-166) against the Mets (+140). The total in the game is set at 8.5 total runs.

The betting facts in the article below use the latest odds as of September 21, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Phillies vs Mets Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Phillies -166 +140 8.5

Phillies Betting Insights

  • This season, the Phillies have been favored 101 times and won 59, or 58.4%, of those games.
  • Philadelphia has a record of 23-15, a 60.5% win rate, when favored by -166 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 62.4% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
  • Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 70 of its 152 games with a total this season.
  • In 152 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 70-82-0 ATS.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 18
ERA 4.65
K/9 7.8

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have won in 21, or 33.3%, of the 63 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, New York has been victorious two times in 14 chances when named as an underdog of at least +140 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mets have a 41.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Contests with New York has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 63 of 153 chances this season.
  • The Mets are 70-83-0 against the spread in their 153 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 13
ERA 2.63
K/9 7.9

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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Ranger Suarez

  • Suarez’s team is 11-9-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed six innings while giving up one earned run on four hits in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Suarez will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • He has one appearance with no earned runs allowed in 20 chances this season.
  • Suarez’s team has a record of 6-6 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Suarez’s team is 11-9 when he starts this season.
  • In Suarez’s 20 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over seven times.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 66 64 85 3.23 6 23
Gregory Soto 64 56.2 57 4.76 21 2
Seranthony Domínguez 54 47 44 4.02 13 2
Jeff Hoffman 48 49.1 67 2.55 9 1
Matt Strahm 44 84.1 105 3.20 9 2

Mets Probable Pitcher – David Peterson

  • Peterson gets the start for the Mets, his 20th of the season. He is 3-8 with a 5.22 ERA and 113 strikeouts through 100 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent appearance came on Friday against the Cincinnati Reds, when the lefty threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • Peterson is trying for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 4.0 innings per start.
  • In six of his appearances this season he has not give up an earned run.
  • The Mets have a 3-7 record in Peterson’s 10 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • In Peterson’s 19 starts, his team is 6-13.
  • Peterson has started 19 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 11 of them.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 63 59.2 59 2.87 12 11
Brooks Raley 62 52 58 2.94 24 3
Trevor Gott 60 56 60 4.34 10 1
Drew Smith 59 53.1 58 4.39 12 3
Phil Bickford 58 64.1 70 5.18 4 1

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • The Phillies are 42-16 this season in games when they hit at least two long balls.
  • Philadelphia has gone 33-10 in its 43 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team has notched at least eight hits 100 times this season, and has a 64-36 record in those games.
  • Philadelphia has a 62-17 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Phillies have drawn five or more walks in 58 games this season, and are 38-20 in those contests.

Mets Hitting Trends

  • They are 33-21 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • New York has gone 22-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 84 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 57-27.
  • New York has a 53-19 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 33 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 18-15

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-166)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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