The Chicago Cubs (79-72) will look to Nico Hoerner, riding a 13-game hitting streak, against the Pittsburgh Pirates (70-81) at 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs are favored at home (-184) against the Pirates (+154). The matchup has an over/under of 7.5 total runs.
The insights in this article are based off odds valid as of September 20, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Cubs vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -184 | +154 | 7.5 |
Cubs Betting Insights
- The Cubs have been favorites in 87 games this season and won 49 (56.3%) of those contests.
- Chicago has a record of 6-5 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -184 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Cubs, based on the moneyline, is 64.8%.
- Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 73 of 151 opportunities.
- In 151 games with a spread this season, the Cubs are 72-79-0 ATS.
Cubs Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 3.70 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have won in 50, or 42%, of the 119 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Pittsburgh has a mark of 15-14 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +154 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 39.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 80 of its 151 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- In 151 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 75-76-0 against the spread.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.8 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 5.11 |
| K/9 | 7.0 |
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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Justin Steele
- When Steele starts, his team is 14-14-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up six earned runs and allowed seven hits in six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Steele has pitched five or more innings in 16 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has finished seven appearances without allowing an earned run in 28 chances this season.
- Steele’s team has won 72.2% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (13-5).
- In games Steele has started, his team is 19-9.
- Games Steele has started this season hit the over 14 times in 28 chances.
Cubs Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 64 | 62.1 | 77 | 3.03 | 28 | 4 |
| Julian Merryweather | 63 | 67 | 91 | 3.09 | 16 | 1 |
| Jose Cuas | 62 | 60.2 | 67 | 4.15 | 8 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | 22 | 22.2 | 24 | 4.37 | 1 | 0 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 20 | 83.1 | 75 | 4.54 | 2 | 0 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller
- Keller (12-9) takes the mound first for the Pirates in his 31st start of the season. He has a 4.04 ERA in 182 2/3 innings pitched, with 198 strikeouts.
- In his most recent time out on Thursday, the right-hander threw eight scoreless innings against the Washington Nationals while surrendering two hits.
- Keller is aiming for his 30th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.1 frames per start.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in five of his 30 outings this season.
- The Pirates are 9-10 in Keller’s 19 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Keller’s team is 16-14 in his 30 starts.
- Keller’s starts went over the run total 15 times in 30 games with a set total this season.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 60 | 63 | 72 | 1.86 | 0 | 36 |
| Colin Holderman | 55 | 54.1 | 56 | 3.48 | 27 | 2 |
| Jose Hernandez | 44 | 46.1 | 58 | 4.47 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Borucki | 30 | 35.1 | 31 | 2.80 | 6 | 0 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 28 | 31 | 29 | 2.03 | 8 | 0 |
Cubs Hitting Trends
- The Cubs have a 40-21 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Chicago has had five or more extra-base hits in 31 games this season, and has gone 28-3 in those outings.
- The team has totaled at least eight hits in 98 games this season, and is 70-28 in those contests.
- Chicago has a 63-16 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Cubs have gone 27-21 over the 48 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They are 28-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 23-6.
- They have a record of 50-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Pittsburgh has a 44-12 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 21-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-184)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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