Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 19, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2023

The Chicago Cubs (78-72) and Pittsburgh Pirates (70-80) square off in the first of a three-game series on Tuesday at Wrigley Field, at 7:40 PM ET. The Cubs are coming off a series defeat to the Diamondbacks, and the Pirates a series loss to the Yankees.

The Pirates are an underdog (+143 on the moneyline) when they visit the Cubs (-174). The game’s total is set at 9.

The insights in this article reference odds valid as of September 19, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -174 +143 9

Cubs Betting Insights

  • This season, the Cubs have been favored 86 times and won 48, or 55.8%, of those games.
  • Chicago has a record of 9-7 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -174 on the moneyline.
  • The Cubs have a 63.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Chicago and its opponents have hit the over in 72 of its 150 games with a total this season.
  • The Cubs are 71-79-0 against the spread in their 150 chances this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 3.3
HR 8
ERA 4.20
K/9 8.5

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have won in 50, or 42.4%, of the 118 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 19 times in 40 chances when named as an underdog of at least +143 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 41.2% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 79 of its 150 opportunities.
  • In 150 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 75-75-0 against the spread.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 9
ERA 4.50
K/9 7.6

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Javier Assad

  • Assad’s team is 3-6-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed 3 1/3 innings while giving up four earned runs on five hits in a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.
  • Assad has made eight starts of five or more innings in nine chances this season, and averages 3.5 frames when he pitches.
  • He has 11 appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 27 chances this season.
  • Assad’s team is 3-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Assad’s team has won five of his nine starts this season.
  • Games started by Assad have a 3-6-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Julian Merryweather 63 67 91 3.09 16 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 63 61.1 76 3.08 28 4
Jose Cuas 61 59.2 66 4.22 8 0
Daniel Palencia 22 22.2 24 4.37 1 0
Hayden Wesneski 20 83.1 75 4.54 2 0

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Bailey Falter

  • Falter (2-8 with a 4.40 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Pirates, his 13th of the season.
  • In his most recent time out on Tuesday, Sept. 12 against the Washington Nationals, the lefty threw six innings, allowing one earned run while surrendering four hits.
  • Falter has put up seven starts this year that he pitched five or more innings.
  • In two of his 16 total appearances this season he has not given up an earned run.
  • The Pirates have a 2-6 record in Falter’s eight starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Falter’s team has won four of his 12 starts.
  • Falter has started 12 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in four of them.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
David Bednar 60 63 72 1.86 0 36
Colin Holderman 55 54.1 56 3.48 27 2
Jose Hernandez 43 45.2 58 4.14 5 0
Ryan Borucki 30 35.1 31 2.80 6 0
Carmen Mlodzinski 28 31 29 2.03 8 0

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs have racked up at least two dingers in 60 games this season, and are 39-21 in those outings.
  • Chicago has collected at least five extra-base hits in 30 games this season, and has gone 27-3 in those outings.
  • The team has collected eight or more hits in 97 games this season, and is 69-28 in those contests.
  • Chicago is 62-16 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Cubs are 26-21 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 37 games this season and are 28-9 in those matchups.
  • Pittsburgh has gone 23-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 50-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 56 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 44-12.
  • They have a 21-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Cubs vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-174)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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