Bills vs. Washington Predictions, Betting Trends and Stats – Week 3

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2023

When the Buffalo Bills (1-1) and the Washington Commanders (2-0) match up on Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET, they will both be looking to maintain momentum after winning their previous contest. The Bills won 38-10 against the Raiders, and the Commanders are coming off a 35-33 victory over the Broncos.

The Commanders are 5.5-point underdogs in their matchup with the Bills (the game has a total of 42.5 points).

The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 24, 2023 at 11:13 AM ET. Check out the article below for the most up-to-date lines for this contest and click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Bills Vs Commanders Odds

Favorite Spread Over/Under
Bills -5.5 42.5

Bills vs. Washington Predictions

Computer picks for Bills vs Commanders
ATS pick Over/Under pick
Bills (-5.5) Over (42.5)

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Team Stat Rankings (2022)

Bills Commanders
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 28.4 (4) 18.9 (24)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 17.9 (2) 20.2 (7)
Off. Yards per Play (Rank) 6.1 (2) 4.9 (27)
Def. Yards per Play (Rank) 5.1 (7) 5.2 (11)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 27 (30) 23 (17)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 27 (4) 18 (26)

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Bills Betting Insights

  • Against the spread, the Bills were 8-8-0 last year.
  • As 5.5-point or greater favorites, Buffalo went 5-8 against the spread last season.
  • Buffalo had six of its 16 games hit the over last season.
  • A total of 11 times last year, the Bills and their opponent combined to score more than 42.5 points.
  • The over/under in this matchup is 42.5 points, 5.3 fewer than the average total in last season’s Buffalo contests.

Washington Betting Insights

  • Commanders posted a 9-8-0 record against the spread last year.
  • Washington had two wins ATS (2-2) as a 5.5-point underdog or more last season.
  • In 17 Commanders games last year, five of them went over the total.
  • Washington games had over 42.5 points five times last year.
  • Games involving the Commanders last year averaged 41.8 points per game, a 0.7-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.

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Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen had an impressive passing stat line last year with 4,283 yards (267.7 yards per game), going 359-for-567 (63.3% completion percentage) with 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He was impressive in the running game as well, with 762 rushing yards on 124 carries, seven rushing TDs, and averaging 47.6 yards per game.
  • Latavius Murray collected 760 rushing yards on 171 carries and six touchdowns last season.
  • Stefon Diggs amassed 108 receptions for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He was targeted 154 times, and averaged 89.3 yards per game.
  • Gabriel Davis also impressed receiving last year. He bagged 48 receptions for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. He was targeted 93 times.
  • Dawson Knox’s stat line last year: 517 receiving yards, 48 catches, six touchdowns, on 65 targets.
  • Leonard Floyd’s hard work last season put together a stat line of 9.0 sacks, 10.0 TFL and 59 tackles.
  • Last season Matt Milano grabbed 99 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three interceptions.
  • Jordan Poyer collected four interceptions while adding 63 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and eight passes defended last year.

Washington Players to Watch

  • Sam Howell threw for 169 yards and one touchdown last season. He also chipped in on the ground, collecting one touchdown while racking up 35 yards.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. tallied 797 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground during last year’s campaign.
  • Last season Antonio Gibson rushed for 546 yards and hauled in passes for 353 yards. He also scored five total touchdowns.
  • Terry McLaurin was targeted 7.1 times per game and racked up 1,191 receiving yards and five touchdowns over the course of 2022.
  • Curtis Samuel averaged 38.6 receiving yards on 5.4 targets per game in 2022, scoring four touchdowns.
  • Jahan Dotson averaged 43.6 receiving yards per game on 5.1 targets per game a season ago.
  • Last year Da’Ron Payne accumulated 11.5 sacks, 18.0 TFL and 64 tackles.
  • Cody Barton was all over the field last season with 133 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions.
  • Last year Darrick Forrest picked off four passes to go along with 84 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and nine passes defended.

How to Bet on Bills vs Commanders

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