Marlins vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 19, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2023

Braxton Garrett aims for his 10th victory of the season when his Miami Marlins (78-73) host the New York Mets (70-80) on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET.

The Mets (+135 underdog on the moneyline) are away versus the Marlins (-162). The total for this game is set at 8.5.

The betting facts in this article are based off odds valid as of September 19, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Marlins vs Mets Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Marlins -162 +135 8.5

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have been favorites in 68 games this season and won 40 (58.8%) of those contests.
  • This season Miami has won 18 of its 24 games, or 75%, when favored by at least -162 on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 61.8% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
  • Miami’s games have gone over the total in 70 of its 151 chances.
  • The Marlins are 69-82-0 against the spread this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.1
HR 13
ERA 4.71
K/9 8.9

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have been underdogs in 61 games this season and have come away with the win 20 times (32.8%) in those contests.
  • This year, New York has won two of 14 games when listed as at least +135 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mets have a 42.6% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • New York and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 62 of its 151 opportunities.
  • The Mets are 68-83-0 against the spread in their 151 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 12
ERA 2.83
K/9 8.5

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Garrett

  • Garrett’s team is 14-13-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw six scoreless innings against the Milwaukee Brewers while allowing four hits.
  • In 27 starts this season, Garrett has lasted five or more innings 22 times, with an average of 5.1 innings per appearance.
  • He has made 29 appearances and finished six of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Garrett’s team is 11-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Garrett’s team has won 19 of his 27 starts.
  • Out of Garrett’s 27 starts with a total this season, 13 have hit the over.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 64 72.2 96 2.23 24 9
David Robertson 57 60.2 70 3.26 8 19
Andrew Nardi 54 51.2 66 2.79 16 2
Steven Okert 53 54.1 66 4.14 12 0
A.J. Puk 53 51.1 71 4.21 1 15

Mets Probable Pitcher – Joey Lucchesi

  • Lucchesi makes the start for the Mets, his eighth of the season. He is 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The left-hander’s most recent appearance was on Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, when he tossed seven innings, surrendering no earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • Lucchesi will aim to pitch five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 5.0 innings per outing.
  • He will attempt for his third straight appearance without giving up an earned run.
  • The Mets have played while the underdog on the moneyline for three of Lucchesi’s starts this season, and they won every time.
  • Lucchesi’s team has a 4-3 record in his starts this season.
  • Lucchesi has had eight starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in five of those games.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 63 59.2 59 2.87 12 11
Brooks Raley 61 51.1 56 2.81 24 3
Drew Smith 58 52.1 57 4.47 12 3
Trevor Gott 58 54.1 59 4.31 10 1
Phil Bickford 57 64 70 5.20 4 1

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • The Marlins are 26-22 this season in games when they send out two or more long balls.
  • Miami has collected at least five extra-base hits in 30 games this season, and has gone 27-3 in those outings.
  • The club has strung together at least eight hits in 109 games this season, and is 64-45 in those contests.
  • Miami is 55-14 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Marlins are 22-12 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Mets Hitting Trends

  • They have won 32 of the 53 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • New York has won 21 of its 27 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 82 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 56-26.
  • New York has won 52 of its 71 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 18-15 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-162)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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