Twins vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 19, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds (79-73) will look to Christian Encarnacion-Strand, on a two-game homer streak, against the Minnesota Twins (79-72) at 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds are an underdog at home (+110) versus the Twins (-131). The contest has an over/under of 9.5.

The betting trends in this article reference odds valid as of September 19, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Twins vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Twins -131 +110 9.5

Twins Betting Insights

  • This season, the Twins have won 60 out of the 101 games, or 59.4%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season Minnesota has won 42 of its 74 games, or 56.8%, when favored by at least -131 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Twins, based on the moneyline, is 56.7%.
  • Minnesota and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 75 of 151 opportunities.
  • The Twins are 74-77-0 against the spread in their 151 chances this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 15
ERA 3.78
K/9 10.3

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have won in 57, or 49.6%, of the 115 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This year, Cincinnati has won 39 of 83 games when listed as at least +110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 47.6% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 74 of its 152 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 152 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 89-63-0 against the spread.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 14
ERA 4.35
K/9 8.5

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Kenta Maeda

  • Maeda’s team is 12-7-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander gave up two earned runs in seven innings pitched on Thursday in his last outing, a matchup with the Chicago White Sox.
  • Maeda has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has made 19 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Maeda’s team has won 72.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (8-3).
  • Maeda’s team has won nine of his 19 starts.
  • Out of Maeda’s 19 starts with a total this season, 12 have hit the over.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Griffin Jax 66 62 63 3.92 23 2
Emilio Pagán 59 64.1 57 3.22 8 0
Dylan Floro 56 54.1 56 4.97 9 7
Jhoan Duran 55 58.1 78 2.47 1 26
Caleb Thielbar 31 27.1 30 1.98 14 0

Reds Probable Pitcher – Fernando Cruz

  • The Reds will look to Cruz (1-1) to open the game and make his second start of the season.
  • In his most recent time out — in relief on Saturday — the righty threw two scoreless innings against the New York Mets without surrendering a hit.
  • He is looking to keep a streak of four games without giving up an earned run alive.
  • The Reds were named the moneyline underdog for one Cruz start this season — they won.
  • His team has won the only game he’s made an appearance in this season.
  • Cruz’s lone start with a total this season went over.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 66 70.1 66 3.07 22 2
Alexis Diaz 64 64.1 84 2.10 1 37
Buck Farmer 64 71 65 3.93 10 3
Sam Moll 63 57.2 64 3.28 9 1
Lucas Sims 60 56 69 3.38 22 3

Twins Hitting Trends

  • The Twins are 56-19 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
  • Minnesota is 42-9 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club is 66-22 in the games this season it has collected eight or more hits.
  • Minnesota is 71-14 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Twins have drawn five or more walks in 50 games this season, and are 32-18 in those contests.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They are 36-15 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Cincinnati has gone 30-9 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 70 of the 99 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Cincinnati has a 71-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 24 of their 45 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Twins vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (+110)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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