Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 19, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 19, 2023

Ronald Acuna Jr. is just two RBI away from his 100th of the campaign as his Atlanta Braves (96-54) prep for the Philadelphia Phillies (82-68) on Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET.

The Phillies are an underdog away (+184) at the Braves (-227). The contest has a set total of 8.5.

The betting facts in this article use the latest odds as of September 19, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Braves vs Phillies Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Braves -227 +184 8.5

Braves Betting Insights

  • This season, the Braves have been favored 136 times and won 88, or 64.7%, of those games.
  • Atlanta has entered 35 games this season favored by -227 or more and is 25-10 in those contests.
  • The Braves have a 69.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 83 of 150 games with a total.
  • The Braves are 78-72-0 against the spread in their 150 chances this season.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 17
ERA 7.57
K/9 10.8

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have come away with 22 wins in the 47 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Philadelphia has played as an underdog of +184 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
  • The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 35.2% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 68 of its 150 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 150 games with a line this season, the Phillies have a mark of 69-81-0 against the spread.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.7
HR 18
ERA 4.25
K/9 8.6

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Spencer Strider

  • Strider and his team are 17-12-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed four hits in seven innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.
  • Strider has started 29 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 26 times. He averages 5.8 innings per appearance.
  • He has made 29 appearances and finished six of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Strider’s team has a record of 23-6 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Strider’s team is 23-6 when he starts this season.
  • Games Strider has started this season hit the over 17 times in 29 chances.

Braves Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
A.J. Minter 64 59.2 77 3.77 19 10
Pierce Johnson 62 59 85 4.73 11 13
Kirby Yates 56 57.1 77 3.30 8 5
Brad Hand 55 49.2 54 5.07 4 1
Joe Jiménez 53 51.2 67 3.31 12 0

Phillies Probable Pitcher – Cristopher Sanchez

  • Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies, his 17th of the season. He is 2-4 with a 3.40 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Wednesday, the lefty went 7 1/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves, allowing four earned runs while surrendering eight hits.
  • Sanchez will try to build on a three-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.4 innings per appearance).
  • In three of his 16 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
  • The Phillies are 1-3 in Sanchez’s four starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Sanchez’s team has compiled a 7-9 record in his 16 starts.
  • Sanchez has started 16 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in six of them.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 65 63 84 3.29 6 23
Gregory Soto 63 56 56 4.82 21 2
Seranthony Domínguez 53 46 44 4.11 13 2
Jeff Hoffman 47 49 66 2.20 8 1
Matt Strahm 43 83.1 105 3.24 9 1

Braves Hitting Trends

  • The Braves have put up two or more round-trippers in 83 games this season, and are 61-22 in those outings.
  • Atlanta is 35-6 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team has put up at least eight hits in 105 games this season, and is 73-32 in those contests.
  • Atlanta is 76-21 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Braves have drawn at least five walks in 40 games this season, and are 28-12 in those contests.

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • They are 41-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Philadelphia has gone 33-10 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 100 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 64-36.
  • Philadelphia has won 61 of its 78 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 37-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (-227)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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