Twins vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 18, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 18, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds (78-73) will look for another strong showing from a batter on a roll versus the Minnesota Twins (79-71) on Monday at 6:40 PM ET, at Great American Ball Park. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is riding a two-game homer streak.

The Twins are a favorite (-155) at the Reds (+130). The total for this game is set at 9.5.

The betting facts in the article below reference odds valid as of September 18, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Twins vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Twins -155 +130 9.5

Twins Betting Insights

  • This season, the Twins have been favored 100 times and won 60, or 60%, of those games.
  • This season Minnesota has won 28 of its 50 games, or 56%, when favored by at least -155 on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 60.8% chance to win.
  • Minnesota and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 74 of 150 opportunities.
  • The Twins are 74-76-0 against the spread in their 150 chances this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 14
ERA 3.24
K/9 10.6

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have been victorious in 56, or 49.1%, of the 114 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Cincinnati has come away with a win 24 times in 50 chances when named as an underdog of at least +130 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 43.5% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 73 of its 151 opportunities.
  • The Reds have an against the spread record of 88-63-0 in 151 games with a line this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.2
HR 14
ERA 4.85
K/9 8.3

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Joe Ryan

  • Ryan’s team is 12-14-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Tuesday, when he tossed 4 2/3 innings while giving up two earned runs on five hits in a matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • Ryan has made 19 starts of five or more innings in 26 chances this season, and averages 5.6 frames when he pitches.
  • In 26 appearances this season, he has finished three without allowing an earned run.
  • Ryan’s team has been victorious in 55% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 11-9.
  • In games Ryan has started, his team is 14-12.
  • Out of Ryan’s 26 starts with a total this season, 16 have hit the over.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Griffin Jax 66 62 63 3.92 23 2
Emilio Pagán 59 64.1 57 3.22 8 0
Dylan Floro 56 54.1 56 4.97 9 7
Jhoan Duran 55 58.1 78 2.47 1 26
Caleb Thielbar 31 27.1 30 1.98 14 0

Reds Probable Pitcher – Connor Phillips

  • The Reds are sending Phillips (0-0) to make his third start of the season.
  • In his last time out on Wednesday, the righty threw four innings against the Detroit Tigers, allowing three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • The Reds were the underdog on the moneyline for two Phillips starts this season — they won both.
  • His team has won both of the matchups he’s made an appearance in this season.
  • Phillips’ two starts with a total this season finished 1-1-0 against the total.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 66 70.1 66 3.07 22 2
Alexis Diaz 64 64.1 84 2.1 1 37
Buck Farmer 64 71 65 3.93 10 3
Sam Moll 63 57.2 64 3.28 9 1
Lucas Sims 60 56 69 3.38 22 3

Twins Hitting Trends

  • The Twins have hit at least two home runs in 74 games this season, and are 56-18 in those contests.
  • Minnesota has collected five or more extra-base hits in 51 games this season, and has gone 42-9 in those contests.
  • The club has racked up at least eight hits in 88 games this season, and is 66-22 in those contests.
  • Minnesota is 71-14 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Twins are 32-18 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They are 36-15 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 39 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 30-9.
  • They have a record of 69-29 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cincinnati has a 70-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 23-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Twins vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Reds (+130)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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