Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 18, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

Ronald Acuna Jr. will try to notch his 100th RBI of the year (he has 98) when his Atlanta Braves (96-53) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (81-68) at 7:20 PM ET on Monday.

The Braves (-112 moneyline odds to win) and the Phillies (-107) will play in an expected close matchup. The matchup has an over/under set at 9.5 total runs.

The insights in the article below use the latest odds as of September 18, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Braves vs Phillies Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Braves -112 -107 9.5

Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have won 88, or 65.2%, of the 135 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Atlanta has a record of 88-46 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -112 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 52.8%.
  • Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 83 of its 149 chances.
  • The Braves are 78-71-0 against the spread this season.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.6
HR 18
ERA 7.06
K/9 10.6

Phillies Betting Insights

  • The Phillies have been victorious in 21, or 45.7%, of the 46 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Philadelphia has won 19 of 43 games when listed as at least -107 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 51.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Philadelphia and its opponents have gone over in 68 of its 149 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Phillies have posted a record of 68-81-0 against the spread this season.

Phillies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 14
ERA 4.45
K/9 8.5

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Kyle Wright

  • Wright’s team is 1-5-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander gave up six earned runs in three innings pitched on Monday, Sept. 11 in his last outing, a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
  • Wright has made two starts of five or more innings in six chances this season, and averages 3.5 frames when he pitches.
  • He has finished one appearance without allowing an earned run in six chances this season.
  • Wright’s team is 3-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Wright’s team has a 3-3 record in his starts this season.
  • In Wright’s six starts with a total, the teams have hit the over five times.

Braves Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
A.J. Minter 64 59.2 77 3.77 19 10
Pierce Johnson 62 59 85 4.73 11 13
Kirby Yates 56 57.1 77 3.3 8 5
Brad Hand 55 49.2 54 5.07 4 1
Joe Jiménez 53 51.2 67 3.31 12 0

Phillies Probable Pitcher – Zack Wheeler

  • The Phillies will send Wheeler (11-6) out for his 30th start of the season. He is 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 196 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves, the righty went five innings, allowing six earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Wheeler is trying for his 18th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages six frames per start.
  • In five of his appearances this season he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Phillies have a 2-1 record in Wheeler’s three starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Wheeler’s team has a 17-12 record in his starts this season.
  • Wheeler’s starts went over the run total 13 times in 29 games with a set total this season.

Phillies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Craig Kimbrel 65 63 84 3.29 6 23
Gregory Soto 62 55 54 4.91 21 2
Seranthony Domínguez 53 46 44 4.11 13 2
Jeff Hoffman 47 49 66 2.2 8 1
Matt Strahm 42 82.1 104 3.28 9 1

Braves Hitting Trends

  • The Braves have a 61-22 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Atlanta has had five or more extra-base hits in 41 games this season, and has gone 35-6 in those contests.
  • The team is 73-32 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
  • Atlanta is 76-21 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Braves have gone 28-12 in the 40 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Phillies Hitting Trends

  • They have won 40 of the 56 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Philadelphia has won 32 of its 42 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 64 of the 100 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Philadelphia has a 60-17 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 36-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (-112)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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