Marlins vs. Mets Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 18, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The New York Mets (69-80) visit the Miami Marlins (78-72) in NL East action, at 6:40 PM ET on Monday.

The Marlins are a home favorite (-161) against the Mets (+135). The over/under for this game is set at 8.5.

The betting trends in the following article reflect odds as of September 18, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Marlins vs Mets Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Marlins -161 +135 8.5

Marlins Betting Insights

  • This season, the Marlins have won 40 out of the 67 games, or 59.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Miami has a record of 18-6 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -161 on the moneyline.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 61.7% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
  • Miami’s games have gone over the total in 70 of its 150 chances.
  • In 150 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 69-81-0 ATS.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 15
ERA 4.71
K/9 8.7

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have been chosen as underdogs in 60 games this year and have walked away with the win 19 times (31.7%) in those games.
  • New York has a win-loss record of 2-12 when favored by +135 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • The Mets have an implied victory probability of 42.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Contests with New York has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 62 of 150 chances this season.
  • The Mets are 67-83-0 against the spread in their 150 games that had a posted line this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 11
ERA 3.27
K/9 8.5

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Edward Cabrera

  • Cabrera and his team are 6-10-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched out of the bullpen on Tuesday, when he threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs while allowing one hit to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Cabrera has started 16 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 10 times. He averages 4.5 innings per appearance.
  • In 19 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
  • When Cabrera starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 5-2.
  • In games Cabrera has started, his team is 8-8.
  • In games Cabrera has started this season, the teams are 6-10-0 at hitting the over.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 63 71.2 94 2.13 24 9
David Robertson 56 59.2 68 3.32 8 19
Andrew Nardi 54 51.2 66 2.79 16 2
Steven Okert 53 54.1 66 4.14 12 0
A.J. Puk 52 49.2 69 4.35 1 15

Mets Probable Pitcher – Jose Butto

  • The Mets will send Butto (1-2) to the mound for his fifth start of the season. He is 1-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent appearance on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the right-hander tossed five innings, allowing one earned run while surrendering two hits.
  • Butto will try to last five or more innings for his third straight appearance. He’s averaging 4.3 frames per outing.
  • The Mets have not been the underdog on the moneyline when Butto starts this season.
  • Butto’s team is 2-2 in his four starts.
  • Butto’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in one of four games.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 62 58.2 57 2.91 12 10
Brooks Raley 61 51.1 56 2.81 24 3
Drew Smith 58 52.1 57 4.47 12 3
Trevor Gott 58 54.1 59 4.31 10 1
Phil Bickford 56 63 70 5.29 4 1

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • The Marlins have a 26-22 record this season in games when they belt two or more homers.
  • Miami has gone 27-3 in its 30 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has collected at least eight hits 109 times this season, and has a 64-45 record in those games.
  • Miami has a 55-14 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Marlins are 22-12 over the 34 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Mets Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 53 games this season and are 32-21 in those matchups.
  • New York has won 21 of its 27 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 81 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 55-26.
  • New York has won 52 of its 71 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 18-15 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-161)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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