Astros vs. Royals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The Kansas City Royals (48-101) will attempt to keep a four-game win streak alive when they host the Houston Astros (83-66) at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday.

The Astros are heavily favored (-247 moneyline odds) when they visit the Royals (+203). The over/under for this game is 9.5.

The insights in this article are based off odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Astros vs Royals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Astros -247 +203 9.5

Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have won 58, or 53.2%, of the 109 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Houston is 10-4 this season when entering a game favored by -247 or more on the moneyline.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 71.2% chance of a victory for the Astros.
  • Houston and its opponents have hit the over in 78 of its 149 games with a total this season.
  • In 149 games with a spread this season, the Astros are 74-75-0 ATS.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 6.5
HR 19
ERA 4.40
K/9 8.3

Royals Betting Insights

  • The Royals have won in 41, or 32%, of the 128 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This year, Kansas City has won four of 19 games when listed as at least +203 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Royals have a 33% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Kansas City’s games have gone over the total in 72 of its 149 opportunities.
  • The Royals are 65-84-0 against the spread in their 149 games that had a posted line this season.

Royals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 13
ERA 5.55
K/9 7.2

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Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez

  • Valdez and his team are 12-16-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Tuesday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed four hits in seven innings against the Oakland Athletics.
  • Valdez has eight starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has made 28 appearances and finished five of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Valdez’s team is 13-13 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Valdez’s team has won 15 of his 28 starts.
  • In Valdez’s 28 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 15 times.

Astros Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Bryan Abreu 64 65 90 1.94 23 4
Héctor Neris 62 60.2 68 1.93 27 2
Kendall Graveman 62 62.1 63 3.32 12 8
Phil Maton 62 61.2 69 3.21 8 1
Rafael Montero 62 63.1 73 4.83 10 1

Royals Probable Pitcher – Jordan Lyles

  • Lyles (4-16) takes the mound first for the Royals in his 29th start of the season. He’s put together a 6.33 ERA in 160 2/3 innings pitched, with 107 strikeouts.
  • The righty’s most recent time out came on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, when he went five innings, surrendering seven earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • Lyles will try to pitch five or more innings for his fourth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.7 innings per outing.
  • In one of his 28 total appearances this season he has not given up an earned run.
  • The Royals have been the moneyline underdog in 25 of Lyles’ starts this season, and they went 5-20 in those games.
  • Lyles’ team has compiled a 5-23 record over his 28 starts.
  • Lyles’ starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 15 of 28 games.

Royals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Carlos Hernandez 55 66.1 75 5.02 13 4
Taylor Clarke 51 55 62 5.56 11 2
Tucker Davidson 31 47 44 6.32 0 2
Amir Garrett 25 24.1 28 3.33 0 0
Jackson Kowar 18 23.2 25 5.32 0 0

Astros Hitting Trends

  • The Astros have racked up at least two homers in 52 games this season, and are 39-13 in those outings.
  • Houston is 27-7 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team is 77-25 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
  • Houston is 72-12 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Astros are 39-8 over the 47 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Royals Hitting Trends

  • They have won 20 of the 38 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 34 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 17-17.
  • In 84 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 37-47.
  • Kansas City has a 33-17 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 7-13 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Astros vs. Royals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (-247)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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