Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks (78-72) will attempt to sweep the Chicago Cubs (78-71) at Chase Field on Sunday, at 7:10 PM ET.

The Cubs (-119 moneyline odds to win) and the Diamondbacks (-101) will play in a projected close matchup. The over/under for this game is 9.

The betting insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -119 -101 9

Cubs Betting Insights

  • This season, the Cubs have been favored 85 times and won 48, or 56.5%, of those games.
  • This season Chicago has won 44 of its 71 games, or 62%, when favored by at least -119 on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 54.3% chance of a victory for the Cubs.
  • Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 72 of 149 opportunities.
  • The Cubs have an ATS record of 71-78-0 in 149 games with a spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 10
ERA 3.76
K/9 7.8

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have come away with 38 wins in the 83 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Arizona has come away with a win 31 times in 71 chances when named as an underdog of at least -101 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 50.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 66 of its 150 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have posted a record of 81-69-0 against the spread this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.5
HR 6
ERA 4.05
K/9 8.0

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Jordan Wicks

  • Wicks’ team is 3-1-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The left-hander gave up one earned run in six innings pitched on Tuesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.
  • Wicks will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
  • Wicks and his team have won each of the four games he’s started as the moneyline favorite.
  • Wicks’ team has yet to lose any of his starts this season.
  • Out of Wicks’ four starts with a total this season, one has hit the over.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Julian Merryweather 63 67 91 3.09 16 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 63 61.1 76 3.08 28 4
Jose Cuas 60 58.1 65 4.01 8 0
Daniel Palencia 21 22 22 4.09 1 0
Hayden Wesneski 20 83.1 75 4.54 2 0

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Ryne Nelson

  • Nelson (7-8 with a 5.53 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 135 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 27th of the season.
  • His last appearance came on Tuesday against the New York Mets, when the righty went 4 1/3 innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up seven hits.
  • Nelson will try to pick up his 19th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.2 innings per appearance.
  • In two of his 26 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
  • The Diamondbacks have an 8-10 record in Nelson’s 18 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Nelson’s team has an 11-15 record in his starts this season.
  • Nelson has started 26 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 12 of them.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 66 59.1 52 4.70 12 7
Paul Sewald 63 58.2 76 3.22 0 33
Scott McGough 60 70.1 86 4.73 14 9
Kyle Nelson 60 52.2 64 3.93 11 0
Kevin Ginkel 56 61.2 65 2.19 8 4

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs are 39-21 this season in games when they crush two or more homers.
  • Chicago has put up at least five extra-base hits in 30 games this season, and has gone 27-3 in those contests.
  • The team has racked up eight or more hits in 97 games this season, and is 69-28 in those contests.
  • Chicago has a 62-16 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Cubs have drawn at least five walks in 47 games this season, and are 26-21 in those contests.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They are 32-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Arizona has won 21 of its 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 70 of the 103 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Arizona has a 63-19 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 24-24 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (-101)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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