Brewers vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 17, 2023

The Washington Nationals (65-84) hope to stop their five-game losing run against the Milwaukee Brewers (84-64), at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday.

The Brewers are heavily favored (-295 on the moneyline to win) when they take on the Nationals (+241). The contest has a set total of 8.

The insights in the following article reference odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Brewers vs Nationals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Brewers -295 +241 8

Brewers Betting Insights

  • This season, the Brewers have been favored 77 times and won 45, or 58.4%, of those games.
  • Milwaukee has not entered a game this season as bigger favorites on the moneyline than the -295 odds on them winning this game.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Brewers have a 74.7% chance to win.
  • Games involving Milwaukee has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 67 of 148 chances this season.
  • The Brewers are 76-72-0 against the spread in their 148 chances this season.

Brewers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 5.7
HR 10
ERA 2.15
K/9 9.5

Nationals Betting Insights

  • The Nationals have been victorious in 57, or 41.3%, of the 138 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Washington has won one of three games when listed as at least +241 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 29.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Washington’s games have gone over the total in 71 of its 148 opportunities.
  • The Nationals have an against the spread mark of 78-70-0 in 148 games with a line this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 10
ERA 5.38
K/9 8.6

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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Brandon Woodruff

  • Woodruff and his team are 6-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed nine innings without allowing a run on six hits in a matchup with the Miami Marlins.
  • Woodruff has nine starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He is looking for his third appearance in a row with no earned runs allowed.
  • When Woodruff starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 6-2.
  • Woodruff’s team has won seven of his nine starts.
  • In games Woodruff has started this season, the teams are 4-5-0 at hitting the over.

Brewers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Hoby Milner 67 60 56 2.10 16 0
Joel Payamps 62 66 73 2.45 25 3
Elvis Peguero 58 61.1 54 3.38 21 1
Devin Williams 57 55.2 82 1.62 0 35
Andrew Chafin 53 45.1 60 5.36 12 8

Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin

  • Corbin makes the start for the Nationals, his 30th of the season. He is 10-13 with a 5.18 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 165 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The left-hander’s most recent time out was on Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he tossed 6 2/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • Corbin has pitched five or more innings in a game 27 times this year heading into this game.
  • In two of his appearances this season he has not allow an earned run.
  • The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in 27 of Corbin’s starts this season, and they went 13-14 in those matchups.
  • Corbin’s team is 14-15 over his 29 starts.
  • Corbin’s starts went over the run total 15 times in 29 games with a set total this season.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Kyle Finnegan 61 64.1 59 3.64 8 25
Hunter Harvey 52 54 62 3.00 17 10
Jordan Weems 46 51 54 3.00 7 0
Andres Machado 38 43.1 37 4.98 4 0
Jose Ferrer 33 30.1 22 3.56 5 0

Brewers Hitting Trends

  • The Brewers have hit two or more homers in 53 games this season, and are 43-10 in those outings.
  • Milwaukee has won each of its 19 games this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team is 57-19 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • Milwaukee is 69-10 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Brewers have drawn at least five walks in 51 games this season, and are 39-12 in those contests.

Nationals Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 38 games this season and are 24-14 in those matchups.
  • In 23 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 18-5.
  • They have won 53 of the 97 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Washington has won 46 of its 64 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 16-11 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Brewers vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Brewers (-295)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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