Ronald Acuna Jr. is only two RBI away from his 100th of the campaign as his Atlanta Braves (96-52) prep for the Miami Marlins (77-72) on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET.
The Braves are a favorite (-124) at the Marlins (+103). The contest has an over/under of 8.
The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -124 | +103 | 8 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have won 88, or 65.7%, of the 134 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Atlanta has entered 122 games this season favored by -124 or more and is 83-39 in those contests.
- The Braves have a 55.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 82 of its 148 chances.
- The Braves are 78-70-0 against the spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.2 |
| HR | 22 |
| ERA | 5.87 |
| K/9 | 10.8 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been underdogs in 81 games this season and have come away with the win 37 times (45.7%) in those contests.
- Miami has a win-loss record of 25-37 when favored by +103 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 49.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Contests with Miami has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 69 of 149 chances this season.
- The Marlins are 68-81-0 against the spread in their 149 games that had a posted line this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 5.55 |
| K/9 | 8.2 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Charlie Morton
- When Morton starts, his team is 14-14-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in six innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday.
- In 28 starts, Morton has pitched through or past the fifth inning 24 times. He has a season average of 5.6 frames per outing.
- In 28 appearances this season, he has finished seven without allowing an earned run.
- When Morton starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 15-11.
- Morton’s team has won 16 of his 28 starts.
- Games Morton has started this season hit the over 12 times in 28 chances.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 64 | 59.2 | 77 | 3.77 | 19 | 10 |
| Pierce Johnson | 62 | 59 | 85 | 4.73 | 11 | 13 |
| Kirby Yates | 56 | 57.1 | 77 | 3.30 | 8 | 5 |
| Brad Hand | 55 | 49.2 | 54 | 5.07 | 4 | 1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 53 | 51.2 | 67 | 3.31 | 12 | 0 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- The Marlins will send Luzardo (9-9) out to make his 30th start of the season as he tries for his 10th win. He is 9-9 with a 3.99 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 160 1/3 innings pitched.
- The lefty’s last appearance came on Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he tossed five innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing 10 hits.
- Luzardo will try to prolong a five-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.5 frames per appearance).
- In six of his appearances this season he did not give up an earned run.
- The Marlins have a 9-8 record in Luzardo’s 17 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Luzardo’s team has put together a 17-12 record in his 29 starts.
- Luzardo’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 15 of 29 contests.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 63 | 71.2 | 94 | 2.13 | 24 | 9 |
| David Robertson | 56 | 59.2 | 68 | 3.32 | 8 | 19 |
| Andrew Nardi | 54 | 51.2 | 66 | 2.79 | 16 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | 53 | 54.1 | 66 | 4.14 | 12 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 52 | 49.2 | 69 | 4.35 | 1 | 15 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have hit two or more dingers in 83 games this season, and are 61-22 in those outings.
- Atlanta has gone 35-5 in its 40 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has collected at least eight hits 104 times this season, and has a 73-31 record in those games.
- Atlanta has a 76-21 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Braves have gone 28-12 over the 40 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They are 25-22 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Miami has won 26 of its 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 63 of the 108 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Miami has a 54-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won 21 of their 33 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-124)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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