Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

Ronald Acuna Jr. is only two RBI away from his 100th of the campaign as his Atlanta Braves (96-52) prep for the Miami Marlins (77-72) on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET.

The Braves are a favorite (-124) at the Marlins (+103). The contest has an over/under of 8.

The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of September 17, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Braves vs Marlins Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Braves -124 +103 8

Braves Betting Insights

  • The Braves have won 88, or 65.7%, of the 134 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Atlanta has entered 122 games this season favored by -124 or more and is 83-39 in those contests.
  • The Braves have a 55.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 82 of its 148 chances.
  • The Braves are 78-70-0 against the spread this season.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 6.2
HR 22
ERA 5.87
K/9 10.8

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have been underdogs in 81 games this season and have come away with the win 37 times (45.7%) in those contests.
  • Miami has a win-loss record of 25-37 when favored by +103 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 49.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Contests with Miami has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 69 of 149 chances this season.
  • The Marlins are 68-81-0 against the spread in their 149 games that had a posted line this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 11
ERA 5.55
K/9 8.2

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Charlie Morton

  • When Morton starts, his team is 14-14-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in six innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday.
  • In 28 starts, Morton has pitched through or past the fifth inning 24 times. He has a season average of 5.6 frames per outing.
  • In 28 appearances this season, he has finished seven without allowing an earned run.
  • When Morton starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 15-11.
  • Morton’s team has won 16 of his 28 starts.
  • Games Morton has started this season hit the over 12 times in 28 chances.

Braves Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
A.J. Minter 64 59.2 77 3.77 19 10
Pierce Johnson 62 59 85 4.73 11 13
Kirby Yates 56 57.1 77 3.30 8 5
Brad Hand 55 49.2 54 5.07 4 1
Joe Jiménez 53 51.2 67 3.31 12 0

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo

  • The Marlins will send Luzardo (9-9) out to make his 30th start of the season as he tries for his 10th win. He is 9-9 with a 3.99 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 160 1/3 innings pitched.
  • The lefty’s last appearance came on Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers, when he tossed five innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing 10 hits.
  • Luzardo will try to prolong a five-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.5 frames per appearance).
  • In six of his appearances this season he did not give up an earned run.
  • The Marlins have a 9-8 record in Luzardo’s 17 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Luzardo’s team has put together a 17-12 record in his 29 starts.
  • Luzardo’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 15 of 29 contests.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 63 71.2 94 2.13 24 9
David Robertson 56 59.2 68 3.32 8 19
Andrew Nardi 54 51.2 66 2.79 16 2
Steven Okert 53 54.1 66 4.14 12 0
A.J. Puk 52 49.2 69 4.35 1 15

Braves Hitting Trends

  • The Braves have hit two or more dingers in 83 games this season, and are 61-22 in those outings.
  • Atlanta has gone 35-5 in its 40 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has collected at least eight hits 104 times this season, and has a 73-31 record in those games.
  • Atlanta has a 76-21 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Braves have gone 28-12 over the 40 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • They are 25-22 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Miami has won 26 of its 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 63 of the 108 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Miami has a 54-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 21 of their 33 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Braves vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (-124)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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