Yankees vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

The New York Yankees (75-73) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (69-79) on Saturday at PNC Park, at 6:35 PM ET.

As the favorite, the Yankees (-119 moneyline odds to win) play at the Pirates (+100). The total for this game is 9.

The betting facts in the article below are based off odds valid as of September 16, 2023 at 5:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Yankees vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Yankees -119 +100 9

Yankees Betting Insights

  • This season, the Yankees have won 49 out of the 90 games, or 54.4%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • New York has a record of 43-30 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -119 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 54.3%.
  • So far this season, New York and its opponents have hit the over in 67 of 148 games with a total.
  • The Yankees have an ATS record of 73-75-0 in 148 games with a spread this season.

Yankees Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 6
ERA 4.55
K/9 10.5

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have come away with 49 wins in the 116 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 45 times in 107 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 50% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have hit the over in 79 of its 148 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Pirates are 74-74-0 against the spread in their 148 games that had a posted line this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.1
HR 9
ERA 4.70
K/9 7.7

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Yankees Probable Pitcher – Luke Weaver

  • Weaver’s team is 14-8-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched out of the bullpen on Saturday, Sept. 9, when he threw 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs while allowing four hits to the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • In 22 starts, Weaver has pitched through or past the fifth inning nine times. He has a season average of 4.2 frames per outing.
  • He has finished two appearances without allowing an earned run in 26 chances this season.
  • Weaver’s team is 1-1 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
  • Weaver’s team has won 12 of his 22 starts this season.
  • In Weaver’s 22 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 12 times.

Yankees Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Wandy Peralta 61 54 51 2.83 18 4
Clay Holmes 59 58 66 2.64 5 20
Tommy Kahnle 41 40 48 2.48 14 2
Michael King 39 87.2 108 2.77 8 6
Nick Ramirez 29 38 27 2.61 2 1

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Luis Ortiz

  • Ortiz makes the start for the Pirates, his 14th of the season. He is 4-4 with a 4.66 ERA and 48 strikeouts through 73 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves, the right-hander tossed 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run while surrendering three hits.
  • Ortiz will look to last five or more innings for his fourth straight start. He’s averaging 4.9 frames per outing.
  • He has not made an appearance yet in 2023 that he did not allow at least one earned run.
  • The Pirates have a 6-6 record in Ortiz’s 12 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Ortiz’s team has compiled a 6-7 record in his 13 starts.
  • Ortiz’s starts hit the over on the run total six times in 13 games with a set total this season.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
David Bednar 59 62 69 1.89 0 35
Colin Holderman 55 54.1 56 3.48 27 2
Jose Hernandez 42 45.1 57 4.17 5 0
Ryan Borucki 29 34.2 30 2.86 6 0
Carmen Mlodzinski 27 30 28 2.10 7 0

Yankees Hitting Trends

  • The Yankees are 57-19 this season in games when they send out two or more home runs.
  • New York has gone 19-4 in its 23 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has racked up eight or more hits 86 times this season, and has a 58-28 record in those games.
  • New York is 54-16 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Yankees have drawn five or more walks in 49 games this season, and are 29-20 in those contests.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They have won 28 of the 37 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 23-6.
  • They have a record of 49-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Pittsburgh has a 44-12 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 21 of their 42 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Yankees vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+100)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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