Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

The Chicago Cubs hope to halt their three-game losing run versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (77-72), on Saturday at 8:10 PM ET.

Oddsmakers project the Cubs as a tight favorite (-115 moneyline odds) against the Diamondbacks (-110). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.

The betting facts in what follows reflect odds as of September 16, 2023 at 7:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -115 -110 9

Cubs Betting Insights

  • The Cubs have been favorites in 84 games this season and won 48 (57.1%) of those contests.
  • This season Chicago has won 46 of its 77 games, or 59.7%, when favored by at least -115 on the moneyline.
  • The Cubs have a 53.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Chicago’s games have gone over the total in 71 of its 148 chances.
  • The Cubs are 71-77-0 against the spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.4
HR 12
ERA 4.19
K/9 8.2

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have been victorious in 37, or 45.1%, of the 82 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Arizona has been victorious 38 times in 84 chances when named as an underdog of at least -110 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 52.4% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Arizona and its opponents have gone over in 65 of its 149 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Diamondbacks are 80-69-0 against the spread in their 149 games that had a posted line this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 8
ERA 4.45
K/9 8.3

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Kyle Hendricks

  • When Hendricks starts, his team is 10-11-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed 5 2/3 innings while giving up two earned runs on seven hits in a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Hendricks has seven starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has two appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 21 chances this season.
  • Hendricks’ team is 7-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Hendricks’ team has a 12-9 record in his starts this season.
  • Games Hendricks has started this season hit the over nine times in 21 chances.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Julian Merryweather 62 65 90 3.18 16 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 62 60.1 76 3.13 28 4
Jose Cuas 59 57.2 64 4.06 8 0
Michael Fulmer 54 57 65 4.42 11 2
Hayden Wesneski 19 83 75 4.45 2 0

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Zach Davies

  • Davies (2-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 17th of the season.
  • In his most recent outing on Monday against the New York Mets, the right-hander went four innings, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • Davies will try to record his ninth game of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 4.7 innings per appearance.
  • In one of his appearances this season he has not surrender an earned run.
  • The Diamondbacks have been the moneyline underdog in 10 of Davies’ starts this season, and they went 5-5 in those matchups.
  • Over Davies’ 16 starts, his team is 8-8.
  • Davies’ starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in eight of 16 contests.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 65 58.1 51 4.78 12 7
Paul Sewald 62 57.2 75 3.28 0 33
Kyle Nelson 60 52.2 64 3.93 11 0
Scott McGough 60 70.1 86 4.73 14 9
Kevin Ginkel 55 60.2 64 2.23 8 4

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs are 39-21 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
  • Chicago has collected at least five extra-base hits in 30 games this season, and has gone 27-3 in those contests.
  • The team is 69-27 in the games this season it has put up eight or more hits.
  • Chicago is 62-15 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Cubs are 26-20 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 46 games this season and are 32-14 in those matchups.
  • In 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 21-7.
  • In 102 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 69-33.
  • Arizona has won 62 of its 81 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 24 of their 48 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-115)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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