The Toronto Blue Jays (81-67) will look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., currently on a two-game homer streak, against the Boston Red Sox (74-74) at 3:07 PM ET on Saturday, at Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays are favored at home (-144) against the Red Sox (+120). The game’s over/under is set at 8.5.
The insights in the following article reflect odds as of September 16, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | -144 | +120 | 8.5 |
Blue Jays Betting Insights
- This season, the Blue Jays have won 61 out of the 112 games, or 54.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Toronto has entered 61 games this season favored by -144 or more and is 35-26 in those contests.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 59% chance of a victory for the Blue Jays.
- Toronto and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of 148 opportunities.
- In 148 games with a spread this season, the Blue Jays are 68-80-0 ATS.
Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.85 |
| K/9 | 9.3 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- The Red Sox have been chosen as underdogs in 75 games this year and have walked away with the win 35 times (46.7%) in those games.
- Boston has a mark of 20-12 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +120 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 45.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Contests with Boston has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 79 of 148 chances this season.
- The Red Sox are 71-77-0 against the spread in their 148 games that had a posted line this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-8 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 5.36 |
| K/9 | 10.1 |
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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Chris Bassitt
- Bassitt and his team are 14-16-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings while giving up five earned runs on nine hits in a matchup with the Texas Rangers.
- Bassitt will look to finish five or more innings for the 12th start in a row.
- He has finished eight appearances without allowing an earned run in 30 chances this season.
- When Bassitt starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 10-9.
- Bassitt’s team has won 17 of his 30 starts.
- Games started by Bassitt have an 11-18-1 record at hitting the over this season.
Blue Jays Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yimi Garcia | 65 | 59.1 | 71 | 4.25 | 16 | 3 |
| Tim Mayza | 65 | 49.1 | 46 | 1.28 | 22 | 1 |
| Erik Swanson | 61 | 60 | 68 | 3 | 28 | 4 |
| Jordan Hicks | 58 | 58.2 | 73 | 3.37 | 10 | 12 |
| Génesis Cabrera | 54 | 52.1 | 54 | 4.47 | 10 | 0 |
Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Chris Sale
- Sale (6-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Red Sox, his 18th of the season.
- In his most recent appearance on Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles, the left-hander tossed four innings, giving up six earned runs while surrendering six hits.
- Sale will try to secure his 11th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.
- In one of his 17 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Red Sox have a 2-1 record in Sale’s three starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Sale’s team has an 11-6 record over his 17 starts.
- Sale’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 11 of 17 contests.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Martin | 52 | 48.1 | 43 | 1.12 | 22 | 1 |
| Josh Winckowski | 52 | 76.1 | 70 | 2.95 | 18 | 3 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 41 | 46 | 54 | 3.52 | 3 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | 38 | 41 | 47 | 3.73 | 10 | 1 |
| Mauricio Llovera | 24 | 29.1 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 |
Blue Jays Hitting Trends
- The Blue Jays are 31-14 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
- Toronto is 23-8 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has notched at least eight hits 106 times this season, and has a 71-35 record in those games.
- Toronto has a 59-15 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Blue Jays are 29-13 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- They are 33-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Boston has won 30 of its 42 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 102 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 61-41.
- Boston has won 62 of its 77 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 17 of their 30 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-144)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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