Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

The Toronto Blue Jays (81-67) will look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., currently on a two-game homer streak, against the Boston Red Sox (74-74) at 3:07 PM ET on Saturday, at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays are favored at home (-144) against the Red Sox (+120). The game’s over/under is set at 8.5.

The insights in the following article reflect odds as of September 16, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Blue Jays -144 +120 8.5

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • This season, the Blue Jays have won 61 out of the 112 games, or 54.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Toronto has entered 61 games this season favored by -144 or more and is 35-26 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 59% chance of a victory for the Blue Jays.
  • Toronto and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of 148 opportunities.
  • In 148 games with a spread this season, the Blue Jays are 68-80-0 ATS.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.6
HR 8
ERA 4.85
K/9 9.3

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have been chosen as underdogs in 75 games this year and have walked away with the win 35 times (46.7%) in those games.
  • Boston has a mark of 20-12 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +120 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 45.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Contests with Boston has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 79 of 148 chances this season.
  • The Red Sox are 71-77-0 against the spread in their 148 games that had a posted line this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 4.1
HR 9
ERA 5.36
K/9 10.1

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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Chris Bassitt

  • Bassitt and his team are 14-16-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings while giving up five earned runs on nine hits in a matchup with the Texas Rangers.
  • Bassitt will look to finish five or more innings for the 12th start in a row.
  • He has finished eight appearances without allowing an earned run in 30 chances this season.
  • When Bassitt starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 10-9.
  • Bassitt’s team has won 17 of his 30 starts.
  • Games started by Bassitt have an 11-18-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yimi Garcia 65 59.1 71 4.25 16 3
Tim Mayza 65 49.1 46 1.28 22 1
Erik Swanson 61 60 68 3 28 4
Jordan Hicks 58 58.2 73 3.37 10 12
Génesis Cabrera 54 52.1 54 4.47 10 0

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Chris Sale

  • Sale (6-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Red Sox, his 18th of the season.
  • In his most recent appearance on Saturday against the Baltimore Orioles, the left-hander tossed four innings, giving up six earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Sale will try to secure his 11th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.1 innings per appearance.
  • In one of his 17 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
  • The Red Sox have a 2-1 record in Sale’s three starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Sale’s team has an 11-6 record over his 17 starts.
  • Sale’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 11 of 17 contests.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Martin 52 48.1 43 1.12 22 1
Josh Winckowski 52 76.1 70 2.95 18 3
Brennan Bernardino 41 46 54 3.52 3 0
John Schreiber 38 41 47 3.73 10 1
Mauricio Llovera 24 29.1 26 4.3 0 0

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • The Blue Jays are 31-14 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
  • Toronto is 23-8 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has notched at least eight hits 106 times this season, and has a 71-35 record in those games.
  • Toronto has a 59-15 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Blue Jays are 29-13 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • They are 33-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Boston has won 30 of its 42 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 102 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 61-41.
  • Boston has won 62 of its 77 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 17 of their 30 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-144)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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