Rays vs. Orioles Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

Tyler Glasnow will attempt to pick up his 10th win of the season when the Tampa Bay Rays (92-57) visit the Baltimore Orioles (91-56) at 7:05 PM ET on Saturday.

The Rays are favored (-127 moneyline odds to win) when they take on the Orioles (+106). The total for the game is 7.5 total runs.

The betting insights in this article reference odds valid as of September 16, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Rays vs Orioles Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Rays -127 +106 7.5

Rays Betting Insights

  • This season, the Rays have been favored 121 times and won 80, or 66.1%, of those games.
  • Tampa Bay has entered 100 games this season favored by -127 or more and is 73-27 in those contests.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Rays have a 55.9% chance to win.
  • Games involving Tampa Bay has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 79 of 149 chances this season.
  • In 149 games with a spread this season, the Rays are 84-65-0 ATS.

Rays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 4.8
HR 13
ERA 2.83
K/9 11.4

Orioles Betting Insights

  • The Orioles have won in 42, or 56.8%, of the 74 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • Baltimore has a win-loss record of 27-21 when favored by +106 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Orioles have a 48.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Baltimore and its opponents have hit the over in 77 of its 147 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Orioles have posted a record of 89-58-0 against the spread this season.

Orioles Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.9
HR 14
ERA 4.30
K/9 7.2

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Rays Probable Pitcher – Glasnow

  • When Glasnow starts, his team is 13-5-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed six innings while giving up four earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.
  • Glasnow has 13 starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • In 18 appearances this season, he has finished one without allowing an earned run.
  • When Glasnow starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 11-7.
  • Glasnow’s team has won 11 of his 18 starts this season.
  • In Glasnow’s 18 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over eight times.

Rays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Colin Poche 59 54.1 53 2.15 20 1
Jake Diekman 58 52 60 3.63 8 0
Robert Stephenson 55 48.1 71 3.17 15 1
Kevin Kelly 51 60.2 49 3.12 11 2
Pete Fairbanks 45 41.1 61 2.18 2 24

Orioles Probable Pitcher – Grayson Rodriguez

  • Rodriguez (5-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 103 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Orioles, his 21st of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Sunday, the right-hander threw 4 1/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox, allowing two earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Rodriguez will look to pick up his 16th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance.
  • In four of his appearances this season he did not give up an earned run.
  • The Orioles have been the moneyline underdog in 11 of Rodriguez’s starts this season, and they went 6-5 in those matchups.
  • Over Rodriguez’s 20 starts, his team is 12-8.
  • Rodriguez has had 20 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and 14 of those matchups finished over the total.

Orioles Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yeinier Cano 63 67.1 58 2.00 29 6
Cionel Pérez 57 50 42 3.24 9 1
Jorge López 54 53.2 45 6.04 10 3
Danny Coulombe 53 45.1 53 2.38 22 2
Shintaro Fujinami 50 75 81 6.96 4 2

Rays Hitting Trends

  • The Rays have put up at least two home runs in 65 games this season, and are 49-16 in those contests.
  • Tampa Bay is 35-3 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has strung together at least eight hits 98 times this season, and has a 69-29 record in those games.
  • Tampa Bay is 69-20 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Rays are 28-9 over the 37 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Orioles Hitting Trends

  • They are 42-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 37 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 34-3.
  • In 95 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 68-27.
  • In 82 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 71-11.
  • In 37 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 28-9

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Orioles (+106)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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