Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

Two of MLB’s best hitters will square off when the Atlanta Braves (96-51) and Miami Marlins (76-72) meet on Saturday at 4:10 PM ET, at LoanDepot park. Ronald Acuna Jr. has a .337 batting average (third in league) for the Braves, while Luis Arraez ranks first, batting .349 for the Marlins.

An expected tight contest pits the Braves (-118 on the moneyline) against the Marlins (-101). The game’s total is set at 9.

The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of September 16, 2023 at 3:18 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Braves vs Marlins Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Braves -118 -101 9

Braves Betting Insights

  • This season, the Braves have won 88 out of the 133 games, or 66.2%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Atlanta has entered 128 games this season favored by -118 or more and is 86-42 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 54.1% chance of a victory for the Braves.
  • Atlanta and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 81 of 147 opportunities.
  • The Braves are 78-69-0 against the spread in their 147 chances this season.

Braves Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 6.3
HR 20
ERA 5.80
K/9 10.8

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have been underdogs in 80 games this season and have come away with the win 36 times (45%) in those contests.
  • This season, Miami has been victorious 30 times in 71 chances when named as an underdog of at least -101 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 50.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Miami’s games have gone over the total in 68 of its 148 opportunities.
  • The Marlins are 67-81-0 against the spread in their 148 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 10
ERA 5.34
K/9 9.1

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Braves Probable Pitcher – Jared Shuster

  • Shuster and his team are 5-5-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, Aug. 27, when he threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs while allowing four hits against the San Francisco Giants.
  • Shuster has made six starts of five or more innings in 10 chances this season, and averages 4.9 frames when he pitches.
  • He has not pitched this season without allowing at least one earned run.
  • Shuster’s team is 5-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Shuster’s team is 5-5 when he starts this season.
  • In Shuster’s 10 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over four times.

Braves Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
A.J. Minter 63 58.2 74 3.84 19 10
Pierce Johnson 62 59 85 4.73 11 13
Kirby Yates 55 56.2 76 2.7 8 5
Brad Hand 55 49.2 54 5.07 4 1
Joe Jiménez 53 51.2 67 3.31 12 0

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Bryan Hoeing

  • The Marlins will send Hoeing (2-2) to make his 10th start of the season. He is 2-2 with a 4.04 ERA and 49 strikeouts through 62 1/3 innings pitched.
  • The righty last appeared in relief on Thursday, when he threw one scoreless inning against the Milwaukee Brewers without surrendering a hit.
  • Hoeing enters this game with two outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
  • He has had 18 appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
  • The Marlins are 3-2 in Hoeing’s five starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • In Hoeing’s nine starts, his team is 6-3.
  • Hoeing has started nine games with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in six of them.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 62 70.1 94 2.18 24 9
David Robertson 56 59.2 68 3.32 8 19
Andrew Nardi 53 51 65 2.82 16 2
A.J. Puk 52 49.2 69 4.35 1 15
Steven Okert 52 53.2 66 3.86 12 0

Braves Hitting Trends

  • The Braves have a 61-21 record this season in games when they smash at least two home runs.
  • Atlanta has gone 35-4 in its 39 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has collected eight or more hits 103 times this season, and has a 73-30 record in those games.
  • Atlanta has a 76-20 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Braves have drawn five or more walks in 40 games this season, and are 28-12 in those contests.

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 46 games this season and are 24-22 in those matchups.
  • Miami has gone 25-3 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 62 of the 107 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Miami has a 53-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 32 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 20-12

Braves vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Braves (-118)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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