Guardians vs. Rangers Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 16, 2023

The Cleveland Guardians (70-78) and Texas Rangers (82-65) clash on Saturday at 6:10 PM ET, at Progressive Field.

The Guardians are favored (-125 on the moneyline) when they host the Rangers (+106). The game’s total is set at 8.

The betting insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of September 16, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Guardians vs Rangers Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Guardians -125 +106 8

Guardians Betting Insights

  • The Guardians have been favorites in 69 games this season and won 36 (52.2%) of those contests.
  • Cleveland is 27-27 this season when entering a game favored by -125 or more on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 55.6% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
  • Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 62 of 147 opportunities.
  • In 147 games with a spread this season, the Guardians are 77-70-0 ATS.

Guardians Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 9
ERA 3.72
K/9 9.1

Rangers Betting Insights

  • The Rangers have been underdogs in 47 games this season and have come away with the win 24 times (51.1%) in those contests.
  • This season, Texas has been victorious 12 times in 28 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Rangers have an implied victory probability of 48.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Texas and its opponents have gone over in 78 of its 147 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Rangers have posted a record of 78-69-0 against the spread this season.

Rangers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.7
HR 15
ERA 5.87
K/9 9.0

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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Tanner Bibee

  • When Bibee starts, his team is 17-7-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up two earned runs on two hits in a matchup with the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Bibee has pitched five or more innings in 15 straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • In 24 appearances this season, he has finished three without allowing an earned run.
  • Bibee’s team has been victorious in 66.7% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 6-3.
  • Bibee’s team has won 13 of his 24 starts.
  • Games started by Bibee have a 9-15-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Guardians Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Emmanuel Clase 68 67.2 60 3.06 0 40
Trevor Stephan 65 64 70 3.38 26 2
Enyel De Los Santos 63 59.2 57 3.47 15 0
Reynaldo López 59 60.2 76 3.56 17 6
Eli Morgan 56 60.1 66 4.03 8 1

Rangers Probable Pitcher – Dane Dunning

  • Dunning makes the start for the Rangers, his 23rd of the season. He is 10-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out came on Monday against the Toronto Blue Jays, when the right-hander threw six innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up six hits.
  • Dunning is looking for his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 4.9 frames per start.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in seven of his 31 appearances this season.
  • The Rangers have been the moneyline underdog in nine of Dunning’s starts this season, and they went 4-5 in those matchups.
  • Dunning’s team has won 11 of his 22 starts.
  • Dunning has had 22 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and 10 of those outings hit the over.

Rangers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Stratton 58 79.1 79 3.74 8 1
Aroldis Chapman 54 54 97 2.83 13 5
Will Smith 54 53.1 51 3.71 7 22
José Leclerc 49 49.2 57 3.08 6 2
Brock Burke 49 58.1 49 4.32 11 0

Guardians Hitting Trends

  • The Guardians have a 21-8 record in games this season when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Cleveland is 20-6 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club has strung together eight or more hits in 90 games this season, and is 47-43 in those contests.
  • Cleveland is 41-14 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Guardians have drawn five or more walks in 37 games this season, and are 20-17 in those contests.

Rangers Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 70 games this season and are 50-20 in those matchups.
  • In 49 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 35-14.
  • They have a record of 76-40 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 95 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 71-24.
  • In 52 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 33-19

Guardians vs. Rangers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Rangers (+106)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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