The Cincinnati Reds (77-72) are looking for continued production from a slugger on a roll versus the New York Mets (68-79) on Saturday at 7:10 PM ET, at Citi Field. Spencer Steer is riding a two-game homer streak.
The Mets (-115 moneyline odds to win) and the Reds (-105) will square off in an expected tight contest. The total in the game is 8.5 total runs.
The betting trends in this article reference odds valid as of September 16, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -115 | -105 | 8.5 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been favorites in 88 games this season and won 49 (55.7%) of those contests.
- New York has a record of 43-38, a 53.1% win rate, when favored by -115 or more by sportsbooks this season.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 53.5% chance of a victory for the Mets.
- New York’s games have gone over the total in 61 of its 148 chances.
- The Mets are 65-83-0 against the spread in their 148 chances this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.2 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 3.52 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have come away with 55 wins in the 112 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 50-55 when favored by -105 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- The Reds have an implied victory probability of 51.2% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Cincinnati and its opponents have hit the over in 72 of its 149 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- The Reds have posted a record of 88-61-0 against the spread this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 4.90 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Tylor Megill
- Megill’s team is 12-10-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander did not allow a run in five innings pitched on Sunday in his last outing, a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.
- Megill has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has finished two appearances without allowing an earned run in 22 chances this season.
- Megill’s team has been victorious in 57.1% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 4-3.
- Megill’s team has won 10 of his 22 starts.
- In Megill’s 22 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over seven times.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 61 | 57.2 | 55 | 2.97 | 12 | 10 |
| Brooks Raley | 59 | 49 | 52 | 2.94 | 24 | 3 |
| Drew Smith | 57 | 52 | 57 | 4.50 | 11 | 3 |
| Trevor Gott | 57 | 53.1 | 58 | 4.39 | 10 | 1 |
| Phil Bickford | 56 | 63 | 70 | 5.29 | 4 | 1 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Andrew Abbott
- Abbott (8-5 with a 3.64 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Reds, his 19th of the season.
- His last time out came on Friday, Sept. 8 against the St. Louis Cardinals, when the lefty tossed four innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up four hits.
- Abbott enters the matchup with 13 outings of five or more innings pitched this season.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in five of his 18 appearances this season.
- The Reds have an 8-2 record in Abbott’s 10 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Abbott’s team has won 13 of his 18 starts.
- Abbott has had 18 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and six of those games hit the over.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 66 | 70.1 | 66 | 3.07 | 22 | 2 |
| Alexis Diaz | 64 | 64.1 | 84 | 2.10 | 1 | 37 |
| Buck Farmer | 64 | 71 | 65 | 3.93 | 10 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | 61 | 55.2 | 64 | 3.40 | 8 | 1 |
| Lucas Sims | 60 | 56 | 69 | 3.38 | 22 | 3 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets have hit at least two homers in 53 games this season, and are 32-21 in those contests.
- New York has gone 21-6 in its 27 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has collected at least eight hits 79 times this season, and has a 54-25 record in those games.
- New York is 51-19 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Mets have drawn at least five walks in 33 games this season, and are 18-15 in those contests.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 50 games this season and are 36-14 in those matchups.
- In 39 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 30-9.
- They have won 68 of the 96 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Cincinnati has a 70-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 44 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 23-21
Mets vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-115)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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