Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 15, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (74-73) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (80-67) in AL East action, at 7:07 PM ET on Friday.

The Blue Jays are favored (-146 moneyline odds to win) when they take the field at home against the Red Sox (+122). The over/under for this game is set at 8.

The betting insights in the following article reflect odds as of September 15, 2023 at 7:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Blue Jays -146 +122 8

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • This season, the Blue Jays have been favored 111 times and won 60, or 54.1%, of those games.
  • This season Toronto has won 33 of its 58 games, or 56.9%, when favored by at least -146 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Blue Jays, based on the moneyline, is 59.3%.
  • Toronto and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 64 of 147 opportunities.
  • The Blue Jays are 67-80-0 against the spread in their 147 chances this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 7
ERA 5.20
K/9 9.2

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have won in 35, or 47.3%, of the 74 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, Boston has been victorious 19 times in 29 chances when named as an underdog of at least +122 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 45% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 79 of its 147 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 147 games with a line this season, the Red Sox have a mark of 71-76-0 against the spread.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 4.8
HR 11
ERA 5.30
K/9 9.8

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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Jose Berrios

  • Berrios and his team have a record of 13-16-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in seven innings pitched against the Kansas City Royals on Sunday.
  • Berrios has pitched five or more innings in five straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • In 29 appearances this season, he has finished five without allowing an earned run.
  • Berrios’ team has won 50% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (12-12).
  • Berrios’ team has won 16 of his 29 starts.
  • Games Berrios has started this season hit the over nine times in 29 chances.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yimi Garcia 65 59.1 71 4.25 16 3
Tim Mayza 65 49.1 46 1.28 22 1
Erik Swanson 61 60 68 3.00 28 4
Jordan Hicks 57 57.2 72 3.43 9 12
Génesis Cabrera 54 52.1 54 4.47 10 0

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brayan Bello

  • Bello (12-8 with a 3.68 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 142 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Red Sox, his 26th of the season.
  • The right-hander’s most recent appearance came on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles, when he went five innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • Bello will look to build upon a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.7 innings per outing).
  • So far during the 2023 campaign he has allowed one or more earned runs in each of his appearances.
  • The Red Sox have been the underdog on the moneyline in 11 of Bello’s starts this season, and they went 9-2 in those games.
  • Bello’s team is 17-8 in his 25 starts.
  • Bello’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 13 of 25 games.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Martin 52 48.1 43 1.12 22 1
Josh Winckowski 52 76.1 70 2.95 18 3
Brennan Bernardino 41 46 54 3.52 3 0
John Schreiber 38 41 47 3.73 10 1
Mauricio Llovera 24 29.1 26 4.30 0 0

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • The Blue Jays have hit two or more dingers in 45 games this season, and are 31-14 in those outings.
  • Toronto is 23-8 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club is 71-35 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
  • Toronto is 59-15 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Blue Jays have drawn at least five walks in 42 games this season, and are 29-13 in those contests.

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 47 games this season and are 33-14 in those matchups.
  • Boston has won 30 of its 42 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 102 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 61-41.
  • Boston has won 62 of its 77 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 17 of their 30 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-146)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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