Rays vs. Orioles Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 15, 2023

The Baltimore Orioles (91-55) hope to stop their three-game losing run versus the Tampa Bay Rays (91-57), at 7:05 PM ET on Friday.

The Orioles (+109 underdog on the moneyline to win) take the field at home against the Rays (-131). The contest has a set total of 8.5.

The insights in what follows use the latest odds as of September 15, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Rays vs Orioles Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Rays -131 +109 8.5

Rays Betting Insights

  • This season, the Rays have been favored 120 times and won 79, or 65.8%, of those games.
  • Tampa Bay has a record of 67-27, a 71.3% win rate, when favored by -131 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Rays have a 56.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • So far this season, Tampa Bay and its opponents have hit the over in 79 of 148 games with a total.
  • The Rays have an ATS record of 83-65-0 in 148 games with a spread this season.

Rays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 13
ERA 2.97
K/9 11.3

Orioles Betting Insights

  • The Orioles have been chosen as underdogs in 73 games this year and have walked away with the win 42 times (57.5%) in those games.
  • This year, Baltimore has won 25 of 44 games when listed as at least +109 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Orioles have an implied victory probability of 47.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Baltimore and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 77 of its 146 opportunities.
  • The Orioles have posted a record of 89-57-0 against the spread this season.

Orioles Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 6.4
HR 14
ERA 3.90
K/9 7.5

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Rays Probable Pitcher – Zach Eflin

  • Eflin’s team is 15-13-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed seven hits in five innings against the Seattle Mariners.
  • Eflin has pitched five or more innings in five straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has finished five appearances without allowing an earned run in 28 chances this season.
  • Eflin’s team has been victorious in 74.1% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 20-7.
  • Eflin’s team has won 20 of his 28 starts.
  • Out of Eflin’s 28 starts with a total this season, 14 have hit the over.

Rays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Colin Poche 59 54.1 53 2.15 20 1
Jake Diekman 57 51 57 3.71 8 0
Robert Stephenson 55 48.1 71 3.17 15 1
Kevin Kelly 51 60.2 49 3.12 11 2
Pete Fairbanks 45 41.1 61 2.18 2 24

Orioles Probable Pitcher – Jack Flaherty

  • Flaherty (8-8) gets the starting nod for the Orioles in his 27th start of the season. He’s put together a 4.98 ERA in 137 1/3 innings pitched, with 138 strikeouts.
  • The righty last pitched on Saturday against the Boston Red Sox, when he threw 3 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs while giving up eight hits.
  • Flaherty has put together 19 starts this year where he pitched five or more innings.
  • In five of his appearances this season he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Orioles are 10-4 in Flaherty’s 14 starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Flaherty’s team is 16-10 over his 26 starts.
  • Flaherty has started 26 games with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 16 of them.

Orioles Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yeinier Cano 63 67.1 58 2.00 29 6
Cionel Pérez 56 49 42 3.31 9 1
Jorge López 54 53.2 45 6.04 10 3
Danny Coulombe 53 45.1 53 2.38 22 2
Shintaro Fujinami 50 75 81 6.96 4 2

Rays Hitting Trends

  • The Rays have racked up at least two long balls in 64 games this season, and are 48-16 in those outings.
  • Tampa Bay has put up at least five extra-base hits in 37 games this season, and has gone 34-3 in those outings.
  • The club is 68-29 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • Tampa Bay is 68-20 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Rays have drawn at least five walks in 37 games this season, and are 28-9 in those contests.

Orioles Hitting Trends

  • They have won 42 of the 56 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Baltimore has gone 34-3 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 68 of the 95 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Baltimore has a 71-11 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 28 of their 37 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Orioles (+109)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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