Mets vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 14, 2023

The New York Mets (68-78) host the Cincinnati Reds (76-72) to open a three-game series at Citi Field, with first pitch at 7:10 PM ET on Friday. The Mets are coming off a series victory over the Diamondbacks, and the Reds a series win over the Tigers.

The Mets are projected as a tight favorite (-115 to win on the moneyline) against the Reds (-104). The game’s over/under is set at 8.

The betting trends in this article are based off odds valid as of September 15, 2023 at 7:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Mets vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Mets -115 -104 8

Mets Betting Insights

  • The Mets have won 49, or 56.3%, of the 87 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • New York has a record of 43-37 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -115 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 53.5%.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 61 of its 147 chances.
  • The Mets have an ATS record of 65-82-0 in 147 games with a spread this season.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.5
HR 18
ERA 3.41
K/9 8.7

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 111 games this year and have walked away with the win 54 times (48.6%) in those games.
  • Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 48-55 when favored by -104 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 51% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Contests with Cincinnati has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 72 of 148 chances this season.
  • The Reds are 87-61-0 against the spread in their 148 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.0
HR 16
ERA 5.90
K/9 9.1

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Mets Probable Pitcher – David Peterson

  • When Peterson starts, his team is 8-10-0 against the spread this season.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed six innings while giving up three earned runs on eight hits in a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.
  • Peterson has started 18 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 10 times. He averages 3.9 innings per appearance.
  • He has six appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 24 chances this season.
  • Peterson’s team has been victorious in 37.5% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 3-5.
  • Peterson’s team is 6-12 when he starts this season.
  • Out of Peterson’s 18 starts with a total this season, 11 have hit the over.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 61 57.2 55 2.97 12 10
Brooks Raley 59 49 52 2.94 24 3
Trevor Gott 57 53.1 58 4.39 10 1
Drew Smith 56 51.1 57 4.56 11 3
Phil Bickford 55 62 70 5.37 4 1

Reds Probable Pitcher – Hunter Greene

  • The Reds are sending Greene (4-6) out for his 19th start of the season. He is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent outing on Sunday against the St. Louis Cardinals, the righty went six innings, giving up no earned runs while surrendering one hit.
  • Greene will try to last five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 5.1 innings per outing.
  • He is looking to have his third straight appearance with no earned runs given up.
  • The Reds have been the moneyline underdog in 12 of Greene’s starts this season, and they went 5-7 in those matchups.
  • Greene’s team has compiled a 7-11 record over his 18 starts.
  • Greene has had 18 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and nine of those games finished over the total.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 65 69 65 3.13 21 2
Buck Farmer 64 71 65 3.93 10 3
Alexis Diaz 63 62.2 82 2.15 1 36
Sam Moll 61 55.2 64 3.40 8 1
Lucas Sims 59 55.2 69 3.40 22 3

Mets Hitting Trends

  • The Mets are 32-21 this season in games when they send out at least two home runs.
  • New York is 21-6 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team has racked up at least eight hits 79 times this season, and has a 54-25 record in those games.
  • New York is 51-19 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Mets have drawn five or more walks in 33 games this season, and are 18-15 in those contests.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 49 games this season and are 35-14 in those matchups.
  • Cincinnati has gone 30-9 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 67-28 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cincinnati has a 69-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 23-21 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Mets vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Mets (-115)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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