Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 14, 2023

The Chicago Cubs (78-69) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-72) both head into Friday’s contest on losing streaks. The Cubs have dropped two in a row, the Diamondbacks three in a row.

The Cubs are the road favorite (-136) versus the Diamondbacks (+113). The contest has a set total of 8.5.

The betting facts in the article below reflect odds as of September 15, 2023 at 9:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -136 +113 8.5

Cubs Betting Insights

  • The Cubs have entered the game as favorites 83 times this season and won 48, or 57.8%, of those games.
  • Chicago is 28-16 this season when entering a game favored by -136 or more on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Cubs, based on the moneyline, is 57.6%.
  • Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 70 of 147 opportunities.
  • The Cubs are 71-76-0 ATS in their 147 games with a spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 10
ERA 3.54
K/9 8.6

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have been chosen as underdogs in 81 games this year and have walked away with the win 36 times (44.4%) in those games.
  • Arizona has a mark of 22-28 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +113 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 46.9% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Contests with Arizona has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 64 of 148 chances this season.
  • In 148 games with a line this season, the Diamondbacks have a mark of 79-69-0 against the spread.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.6
HR 6
ERA 4.34
K/9 7.9

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Justin Steele

  • Steele and his team are 14-13-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up one earned run on six hits in a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Steele has 15 starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has seven appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 27 chances this season.
  • Steele’s team has a record of 13-4 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Steele’s team is 19-8 when he starts this season.
  • In Steele’s 27 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 13 times.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Julian Merryweather 62 65 90 3.18 16 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 62 60.1 76 3.13 28 4
Jose Cuas 59 57.2 64 4.06 8 0
Michael Fulmer 54 57 65 4.42 11 2
Daniel Palencia 21 22 22 4.09 1 0

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Brandon Pfaadt

  • The Diamondbacks are sending Pfaadt (1-8) to make his 17th start of the season. He is 1-8 with a 6.25 ERA and 72 strikeouts over 80 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Sunday against the Chicago Cubs, the right-hander tossed six innings, allowing four earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Pfaadt has put up 10 starts this year that he pitched five or more innings.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in one of his 16 outings this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 5-6 record in Pfaadt’s 11 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Pfaadt’s team has a 6-10 record over his 16 starts.
  • Pfaadt has had 16 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in three of those outings.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 65 58.1 51 4.78 12 7
Paul Sewald 61 57 75 3.16 0 33
Scott McGough 60 70.1 86 4.73 14 9
Kyle Nelson 59 52.1 63 3.44 11 0
Kevin Ginkel 54 59.2 62 2.26 8 4

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs have hit at least two dingers in 59 games this season, and are 39-20 in those contests.
  • Chicago has gone 27-3 in its 30 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club is 69-27 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
  • Chicago is 62-15 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Cubs are 26-20 over the 46 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 45 games this season and are 31-14 in those matchups.
  • Arizona has won 21 of its 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have a record of 68-33 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Arizona has won 61 of its 80 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 24 of their 48 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-136)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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