Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 11, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 11, 2023

Mookie Betts has 162 RBI, and will try to get his 100th when the Los Angeles Dodgers (87-55) take on the San Diego Padres (67-77) on Monday at 10:10 PM ET.

The Dodgers are favored (-164 moneyline odds) when they take the field at home against the Padres (+137). The over/under for this game is set at 9.5.

The insights in this article use the latest odds as of September 11, 2023 at 9:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Dodgers vs Padres Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Dodgers -164 +137 9.5

Dodgers Betting Insights

  • The Dodgers have entered the game as favorites 118 times this season and won 75, or 63.6%, of those games.
  • Los Angeles is 34-19 this season when entering a game favored by -164 or more on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 62.1% chance of a victory for the Dodgers.
  • Los Angeles and its opponents have hit the over in 81 of its 141 games with a total this season.
  • The Dodgers have an ATS record of 78-63-0 in 141 games with a spread this season.

Dodgers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 14
ERA 4.70
K/9 7

Padres Betting Insights

  • The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 34 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (29.4%) in those games.
  • San Diego has played as an underdog of +137 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 42.2% chance of pulling out a win.
  • San Diego and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 60 of its 144 opportunities.
  • The Padres are 68-76-0 against the spread in their 144 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 15
ERA 3.89
K/9 8.4

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Dodgers Probable Pitcher – Gavin Stone

  • Stone and his team have covered in each of the three games he’s started with a spread this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, Aug. 27 against the Boston Red Sox, throwing six innings of relief while giving up four earned runs and allowing five hits.
  • Stone’s team won his only start as a favorite this season.
  • Stone’s team is 2-1 when he starts this season.
  • The teams have gone over the point total set by bookmakers in each of the three games Stone has started this season.

Dodgers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Brusdar Graterol 58 60.2 44 1.34 17 7
Caleb Ferguson 53 53 57 2.89 16 3
Evan Phillips 52 53.2 59 2.18 6 22
Ryan Brasier 49 53.1 48 3.38 9 2
Alex Vesia 47 42.1 55 4.89 9 1

Padres Probable Pitcher – Pedro Avila

  • Avila gets the start for the Padres, his fifth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent appearance on Wednesday, the right-hander threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies while surrendering two hits.
  • Avila has pitched five or more innings in a game one time this season heading into this outing.
  • In five of his appearances this season he has not give up an earned run.
  • The Padres were the underdog on the moneyline for one Avila start this season — they lost.
  • Avila’s team has a 2-2 record in his starts this season.
  • Avila’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in three of four contests.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Luís Garcia 53 54.1 49 3.98 9 0
Nick Martínez 52 97.1 90 3.88 15 1
Scott Barlow 52 58.1 67 4.78 3 13
Josh Hader 51 47.2 77 1.13 0 28
Tim Hill 47 44.1 26 5.48 9 0

Dodgers Hitting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 52-18 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
  • Los Angeles has collected at least five extra-base hits in 43 games this season, and has gone 34-9 in those outings.
  • The team has strung together at least eight hits in 93 games this season, and is 69-24 in those contests.
  • Los Angeles is 72-19 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Dodgers are 42-19 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Padres Hitting Trends

  • They are 34-27 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • San Diego has gone 24-8 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 78 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 52-26.
  • San Diego has won 54 of its 67 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 30-27 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Dodgers (-164)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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