Matt Olson brings a four-game homer streak into the Atlanta Braves’ (91-48) game against the Pittsburgh Pirates (65-75) at 7:20 PM ET on Friday, at Truist Park.
The Pirates are road underdogs (+174) at the Braves (-210). The contest has a set total of 9.5.
The betting insights in this article are based off odds valid as of September 8, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -210 | +174 | 9.5 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have been favorites in 125 games this season and won 83 (66.4%) of those contests.
- This season Atlanta has won 33 of its 45 games, or 73.3%, when favored by at least -210 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 67.7%.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 75 of its 139 chances.
- The Braves are 74-65-0 against the spread in their 139 chances this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.3 |
| HR | 26 |
| ERA | 4.70 |
| K/9 | 10.4 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have come away with 48 wins in the 112 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious six times in 14 chances when named as an underdog of at least +174 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 36.5% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 75 of its 140 opportunities.
- In 140 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 71-69-0 against the spread.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.60 |
| K/9 | 7.8 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Bryce Elder
- Elder and his team have a record of 15-12-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up one earned run in six innings pitched on Sunday in his last outing, a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Elder will look to finish five or more innings for the sixth start in a row.
- He has finished six appearances without allowing an earned run in 27 chances this season.
- When Elder starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 16-6.
- Elder’s team has won 19 of his 27 starts this season.
- In games Elder has started this season, the teams are 11-15-1 at hitting the over.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 60 | 56 | 67 | 4.02 | 16 | 10 |
| Pierce Johnson | 60 | 56 | 81 | 4.82 | 10 | 13 |
| Kirby Yates | 52 | 53.2 | 70 | 2.68 | 8 | 3 |
| Brad Hand | 51 | 46.2 | 50 | 4.63 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Jiménez | 50 | 49.2 | 64 | 2.90 | 11 | 0 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Mitch Keller
- Keller gets the start for the Pirates, his 29th of the season. He is 11-8 with a 3.93 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 169 2/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent time out was on Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals, when the right-hander went six innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing five hits.
- Keller is looking for his 28th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.0 innings per start.
- In four of his 28 total appearances this season he has not given up an earned run.
- The Pirates have been the moneyline underdog in 18 of Keller’s starts this season, and they went 9-9 in those games.
- Keller’s team is 15-13 in his 28 starts.
- Keller has started 28 games with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 14 of them.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 56 | 59 | 66 | 1.98 | 0 | 33 |
| Colin Holderman | 51 | 50 | 54 | 3.06 | 25 | 2 |
| Jose Hernandez | 40 | 42.1 | 53 | 4.46 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Borucki | 25 | 30.1 | 28 | 3.26 | 4 | 0 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 23 | 26.2 | 24 | 2.02 | 4 | 0 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves are 58-20 this season in games when they crush two or more long balls.
- Atlanta is 34-4 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has totaled at least eight hits in 97 games this season, and is 69-28 in those contests.
- Atlanta is 72-18 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Braves have drawn at least five walks in 39 games this season, and are 27-12 in those contests.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They are 26-9 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 22-6.
- In 68 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 46-22.
- Pittsburgh has won 41 of its 52 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 20 of their 41 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Braves vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-210)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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