The Milwaukee Brewers (77-61) and Pittsburgh Pirates (64-75) meet on Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET at PNC Park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
The Brewers are favored (-191 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Pirates (+158). The matchup has an over/under of 8 total runs.
The betting trends in the article below are based off odds valid as of September 6, 2023 at 11:12 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Brewers vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -191 | +158 | 8 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have won 41, or 57.7%, of the 71 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Milwaukee has a record of 5-6, a 45.5% win rate, when favored by -191 or more by bookmakers this season.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 65.6% chance of a victory for the Brewers.
- So far this season, Milwaukee and its opponents have hit the over in 62 of 138 games with a total.
- The Brewers are 68-70-0 ATS in their 138 games with a spread this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 3.62 |
| K/9 | 9.6 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have won in 47, or 42.3%, of the 111 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 12-12 when favored by +158 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 38.8% chance of pulling out a win.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 74 of its 139 opportunities.
- The Pirates have posted a record of 70-69-0 against the spread this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.20 |
| K/9 | 7.4 |
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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Freddy Peralta
- Peralta and his team are 14-12-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed six innings while giving up one earned run on two hits in a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Peralta has 16 starts in a row of five innings or more.
- In 26 appearances this season, he has finished four without allowing an earned run.
- Peralta’s team is 12-6 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Peralta’s team is 16-10 when he starts this season.
- In Peralta’s 26 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 15 times.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoby Milner | 62 | 56 | 51 | 2.25 | 15 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 58 | 62 | 69 | 2.47 | 24 | 3 |
| Elvis Peguero | 54 | 57 | 47 | 3.32 | 19 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | 53 | 51.2 | 76 | 1.74 | 0 | 32 |
| Andrew Chafin | 51 | 43.2 | 57 | 5.15 | 12 | 8 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Colin Selby
- The Pirates are sending Selby (2-0) to the mound to make his third start of the season.
- His most recent time out was in relief on Saturday when the right-hander threw a third of an inning against the St. Louis Cardinals, surrendering two earned runs while giving up two hits.
- He has had seven appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Pirates were the moneyline underdog for two Selby starts this season — they split the games.
- His team split the two games he’s made an appearance in this season.
- Selby’s two starts with a total this season both went over.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 55 | 58 | 64 | 2.02 | 0 | 32 |
| Colin Holderman | 50 | 49 | 54 | 2.94 | 24 | 2 |
| Jose Hernandez | 40 | 42.1 | 53 | 4.46 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Borucki | 25 | 30.1 | 28 | 3.26 | 4 | 0 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 22 | 25.2 | 24 | 2.10 | 4 | 0 |
Brewers Hitting Trends
- The Brewers have a 41-10 record in games this season when they smash two or more home runs.
- Milwaukee has put up at least five extra-base hits in 17 games this season, and won each time.
- The team is 53-18 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
- Milwaukee is 64-10 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Brewers have drawn at least five walks in 46 games this season, and are 34-12 in those contests.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 35 games this season and are 26-9 in those matchups.
- In 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 22-6.
- They have won 45 of the 67 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Pittsburgh has won 40 of its 51 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 20 of their 41 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Brewers (-191)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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