The Tampa Bay Rays (83-54) and Boston Red Sox (71-66) square off on Monday at 4:10 PM ET, opening a three-game series at Tropicana Field.
The Rays are the home favorite (-125) versus the Red Sox (+105). The game’s total is set at 8.
The insights in what follows use the latest odds as of September 4, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Rays vs Red Sox Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -125 | +105 | 8 |
Rays Betting Insights
- This season, the Rays have been favored 113 times and won 73, or 64.6%, of those games.
- Tampa Bay is 68-30 this season when entering a game favored by -125 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Rays, based on the moneyline, is 55.6%.
- Tampa Bay’s games have gone over the total in 72 of its 137 chances.
- The Rays have an ATS record of 74-63-0 in 137 games with a spread this season.
Rays Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.1 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 2.93 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- The Red Sox have won in 33, or 48.5%, of the 68 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This season, Boston has come away with a win 26 times in 49 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 48.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 73 of its 137 opportunities.
- The Red Sox have an against the spread record of 68-69-0 in 137 games with a line this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.2 |
| HR | 17 |
| ERA | 6.67 |
| K/9 | 8.4 |
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Rays Probable Pitcher – Aaron Civale
- When Civale starts, his team is 10-8-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Tuesday, when he tossed five innings while giving up two earned runs on seven hits in a matchup with the Miami Marlins.
- Civale will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- He has finished five appearances without allowing an earned run in 18 chances this season.
- Civale’s team is 8-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Civale’s team has won 11 of his 18 starts this season.
- Games started by Civale have a 9-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Rays Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Poche | 53 | 49 | 47 | 2.39 | 16 | 1 |
| Jake Diekman | 52 | 46.2 | 49 | 4.05 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Stephenson | 50 | 44.2 | 65 | 3.43 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | 47 | 55.2 | 46 | 3.4 | 9 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | 39 | 35.1 | 46 | 2.55 | 2 | 19 |
Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brayan Bello
- The Red Sox will send Bello (10-8) out to make his 24th start of the season. He is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Houston Astros, the righty went 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
- Bello is looking to pick up his 18th start of five or more innings this season in this outing.
- He has not had an outing yet in 2023 where he did not allow at least one earned run.
- The Red Sox have a 7-2 record in Bello’s nine starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Bello’s team has compiled a 15-8 record in his 23 starts.
- Bello has had 23 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in 11 of those games.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Martin | 48 | 44.1 | 38 | 1.22 | 22 | 1 |
| Josh Winckowski | 48 | 72 | 64 | 3 | 16 | 3 |
| Kenley Jansen | 46 | 43.2 | 52 | 3.09 | 0 | 29 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 36 | 43.1 | 50 | 2.49 | 3 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | 33 | 33.2 | 39 | 3.74 | 10 | 1 |
Rays Hitting Trends
- The Rays have hit two or more round-trippers in 60 games this season, and are 44-16 in those contests.
- Tampa Bay has racked up at least five extra-base hits in 33 games this season, and has gone 30-3 in those contests.
- The club has collected eight or more hits 92 times this season, and has a 63-29 record in those games.
- Tampa Bay is 62-20 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Rays are 24-8 in the 32 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- They have won 31 of the 45 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- In 41 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 30-11.
- They have won 59 of the 97 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Boston has a 59-12 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 28 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 17-11
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Rays (-125)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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