Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – September 4, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on September 3, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks (70-67) and Colorado Rockies (50-86) clash in the first of a three-game series on Monday at Chase Field, at 4:10 PM ET. The Diamondbacks are coming off a series defeat to the Orioles, and the Rockies a series loss to the Blue Jays.

The Rockies are an underdog (+212 moneyline odds to win) when they square off against the Diamondbacks (-257). The total for this game is 8.5.

The betting facts in what follows use the latest odds as of September 4, 2023 at 3:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Diamondbacks vs Rockies Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Diamondbacks -257 +212 8.5

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have entered the game as favorites 60 times this season and won 36, or 60%, of those games.
  • Arizona has played as favorites of -257 or more once this season and won that game.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 72% chance of a victory for the Diamondbacks.
  • So far this season, Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 60 of 137 games with a total.
  • The Diamondbacks are 74-63-0 against the spread in their 137 chances this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.2
HR 11
ERA 5.76
K/9 8.5

Rockies Betting Insights

  • The Rockies have been chosen as underdogs in 121 games this year and have walked away with the win 45 times (37.2%) in those games.
  • This season, Colorado has been a moneyline underdog of -257 or longer 20 times, losing every contest.
  • The Rockies have an implied victory probability of 32.1% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • Colorado and its opponents have hit the over in 62 of its 136 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Rockies are 65-71-0 against the spread in their 136 games that had a posted line this season.

Rockies Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 7
ERA 6.83
K/9 6.6

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Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Merrill Kelly

  • When Kelly starts, his team is 13-11-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he gave up seven earned runs and allowed 12 hits in five innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Kelly has 23 starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has finished three appearances without allowing an earned run in 24 chances this season.
  • Kelly’s team has a record of 8-4 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Kelly’s team has a 13-11 record in his starts this season.
  • In games Kelly has started this season, the teams are 8-16-0 at hitting the over.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 62 55.2 47 5.01 12 7
Kyle Nelson 57 49.1 61 3.65 11 0
Paul Sewald 57 53.2 74 3.19 0 29
Scott McGough 56 66 80 4.5 14 9
Kevin Ginkel 50 55.2 56 2.43 7 4

Rockies Probable Pitcher – Peter Lambert

  • Lambert makes the start for the Rockies, his 11th of the season. He is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 64 strikeouts through 76 1/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent appearance was on Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves, when the righty threw five innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up nine hits.
  • Lambert will look to extend a five-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 3.3 frames per outing).
  • He has had seven appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
  • The Rockies have been the moneyline underdog in eight of Lambert’s starts this season, and they went 1-7 in those games.
  • Lambert’s team is 2-8 in his 10 starts.
  • Lambert has started 10 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in three of them.

Rockies Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Jake Bird 56 79 68 4.22 10 0
Justin Lawrence 56 64.2 66 4.18 9 10
Brent Suter 48 60.1 46 3.58 6 0
Matt Koch 29 29.2 19 3.34 5 0
Gavin Hollowell 16 19 18 5.21 2 0

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • The Diamondbacks have a 29-14 record this season in games when they smash two or more home runs.
  • Arizona is 20-7 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has totaled at least eight hits 96 times this season, and has a 64-32 record in those games.
  • Arizona is 59-19 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Diamondbacks have drawn at least five walks in 46 games this season, and are 23-23 in those contests.

Rockies Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 30 games this season and are 18-12 in those matchups.
  • In 28 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 12-16.
  • They have a record of 37-47 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Colorado has won 37 of its 56 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 14 of their 20 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (-257)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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