The Chicago Cubs (72-63) will look to Cody Bellinger, currently on a two-game homer streak, against the Cincinnati Reds (70-67) at 6:40 PM ET on Saturday, at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds are an underdog (+107 moneyline odds to win) when they host the Cubs (-128). The over/under for the game is 9.5 total runs.
The betting insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of September 2, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Cubs vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -128 | +107 | 9.5 |
Cubs Betting Insights
- The Cubs have entered the game as favorites 72 times this season and won 42, or 58.3%, of those games.
- Chicago has a record of 31-12, a 72.1% win rate, when favored by -128 or more by sportsbooks this season.
- The Cubs have a 56.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Chicago’s games have gone over the total in 68 of its 135 chances.
- In 135 games with a spread this season, the Cubs are 65-70-0 ATS.
Cubs Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 2.63 |
| K/9 | 10.0 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been chosen as underdogs in 103 games this year and have walked away with the win 50 times (48.5%) in those games.
- This year, Cincinnati has won 36 of 80 games when listed as at least +107 or worse on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 48.3% chance of pulling out a win.
- Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 66 of its 137 opportunities.
- In 137 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 81-56-0 against the spread.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.8 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 4.14 |
| K/9 | 8.7 |
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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Javier Assad
- When Assad starts, his team is 3-3-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw seven innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up one earned run while allowing three hits.
- Assad will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- He has made 24 appearances and finished 10 of them without allowing an earned run.
- Assad’s team is 3-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Assad’s team has won five of his six starts this season.
- Games Assad has started this season hit the over three times in six chances.
Cubs Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Merryweather | 58 | 61 | 82 | 3.25 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 58 | 58 | 75 | 2.79 | 27 | 4 |
| Jose Cuas | 53 | 54.1 | 60 | 3.64 | 6 | 0 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 53 | 61 | 65 | 2.80 | 7 | 22 |
| Javier Assad | 18 | 79 | 60 | 2.96 | 1 | 0 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Andrew Abbott
- Abbott makes the start for the Reds, his 17th of the season. He is 8-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings pitched.
- The lefty’s most recent appearance was on Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants, when he threw 3 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing five hits.
- Abbott will look to record his 13th game of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.5 innings per appearance.
- In five of his 16 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
- The Reds have a 7-2 record in Abbott’s nine starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Abbott’s team has put together a 12-4 record in his 16 starts.
- Abbott’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in five of 16 contests.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | 60 | 63.2 | 58 | 3.25 | 20 | 1 |
| Alexis Diaz | 58 | 58.2 | 79 | 2.15 | 1 | 35 |
| Buck Farmer | 58 | 63.2 | 58 | 3.68 | 10 | 2 |
| Sam Moll | 55 | 50.2 | 59 | 3.73 | 7 | 1 |
| Lucas Sims | 54 | 51.2 | 66 | 3.66 | 21 | 3 |
Cubs Hitting Trends
- The Cubs have a 34-20 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
- Chicago is 22-3 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The club is 63-24 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Chicago has a 55-15 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Cubs have gone 26-19 over the 45 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They have won 33 of the 44 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Cincinnati has won 28 of its 36 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 87 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 62-25.
- Cincinnati has a 65-13 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 41 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 21-20
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Reds (+107)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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