The Miami Marlins (65-62) will look to Jake Burger, currently on a 13-game hitting streak, versus the San Diego Padres (60-67) at 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, at PETCO Park.
The Marlins are an underdog (+112 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Padres (-135). The contest has a set total of 7.5.
The betting trends in this article are based off odds valid as of August 23, 2023 at 3:19 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Padres vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -135 | +112 | 7.5 |
Padres Betting Insights
- The Padres have won 51, or 52%, of the 98 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- San Diego has a record of 43-32, a 57.3% win rate, when favored by -135 or more by oddsmakers this season.
- The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 57.4%.
- San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 50 of its 127 games with a total this season.
- The Padres have an ATS record of 60-67-0 in 127 games with a spread this season.
Padres Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.64 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have come away with 30 wins in the 68 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This season, Miami has come away with a win 18 times in 41 chances when named as an underdog of at least +112 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 47.2% chance of walking away with the win.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 57 of its 127 opportunities.
- In 127 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 57-70-0 against the spread.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 4.14 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
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Padres Probable Pitcher – Seth Lugo
- Lugo’s team is 8-11-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander did not allow a run in six innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Lugo has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has finished two appearances without allowing an earned run in 19 chances this season.
- Lugo’s team has won 37.5% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (6-10).
- Lugo’s team has won seven of his 19 starts this season.
- In games Lugo has started this season, the teams are 7-8-4 at hitting the over.
Padres Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Wilson | 49 | 51.2 | 56 | 3.31 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Hader | 46 | 43.2 | 68 | 0.82 | 0 | 27 |
| Nick Martínez | 46 | 89 | 81 | 3.94 | 15 | 1 |
| Luís Garcia | 46 | 45.2 | 44 | 4.73 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | 45 | 50.1 | 59 | 5.36 | 1 | 13 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- Alcantara (6-10 with a 4.16 ERA and 141 strikeouts in 164 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Marlins, his 26th of the season.
- The right-hander last pitched on Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when he went six innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up seven hits.
- Alcantara will look to pitch five or more innings for his 23rd straight start. He’s averaging 6.6 frames per outing.
- He has made two appearances this season in which he did not give up an earned run.
- The Marlins have a 4-8 record in Alcantara’s 12 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Alcantara’s team is 10-15 over his 25 starts.
- Alcantara has had 25 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in 15 of those matchups.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 52 | 58 | 82 | 2.64 | 24 | 2 |
| David Robertson | 49 | 53 | 56 | 2.89 | 7 | 19 |
| Jorge López | 45 | 44.1 | 33 | 5.68 | 7 | 3 |
| Andrew Nardi | 45 | 43.1 | 58 | 3.12 | 11 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | 44 | 46 | 59 | 2.93 | 10 | 0 |
Padres Hitting Trends
- The Padres have put up two or more homers in 53 games this season, and are 30-23 in those contests.
- San Diego is 23-8 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has racked up at least eight hits 68 times this season, and has a 47-21 record in those games.
- San Diego is 50-9 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Padres have drawn five or more walks in 51 games this season, and are 29-22 in those contests.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 39 games this season and are 18-21 in those matchups.
- Miami has won 22 of its 24 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 54 of the 96 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Miami has won 45 of its 59 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won 16 of their 28 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Padres vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Padres (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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