Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – August 18, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 18, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks (62-60) bring a three-game win streak into a home contest versus the San Diego Padres (58-64), at 9:40 PM ET on Friday.

The Diamondbacks are an underdog away (+140) against the Padres (-168). The game’s total is set at 8.5.

The insights in this article use the latest odds as of August 18, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Padres -168 +140 8.5

Padres Betting Insights

  • This season, the Padres have won 49 out of the 93 games, or 52.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • San Diego has entered 40 games this season favored by -168 or more and is 22-18 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 62.7% chance of a victory for the Padres.
  • Games involving San Diego has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 48 of 122 chances this season.
  • The Padres are 58-64-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 3.9
HR 7
ERA 4.40
K/9 7.5

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have been chosen as underdogs in 66 games this year and have walked away with the win 29 times (43.9%) in those games.
  • Arizona has a win-loss record of 7-9 when favored by +140 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Diamondbacks have a 41.7% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 51 of its 122 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Diamondbacks are 67-55-0 against the spread in their 122 games that had a posted line this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.4
HR 12
ERA 4.60
K/9 9.3

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Seth Lugo

  • Lugo’s team is 7-11-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, giving up two earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • Lugo has 15 starts of five or more innings this season in 18 chances. He averages 5.4 innings per outing.
  • In 18 appearances this season, he has finished one without allowing an earned run.
  • Lugo’s team has been victorious in 33.3% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 5-10.
  • Lugo’s team is 6-12 when he starts this season.
  • Out of Lugo’s 18 starts with a total this season, seven have hit the over.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Steven Wilson 47 49.2 51 3.44 21 0
Josh Hader 45 42.2 65 0.84 0 27
Nick Martínez 44 86 78 3.66 15 1
Luís Garcia 44 42.2 44 5.06 9 0
Scott Barlow 42 46.1 54 5.83 1 13

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Brandon Pfaadt

  • Pfaadt makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 12th of the season. He is 0-6 with a 6.91 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last outing on Sunday against the San Diego Padres, the right-hander went 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering nine hits.
  • Pfaadt is looking to record his eighth start of five or more innings this year in this matchup.
  • He given up one or more earned runs in all of his outings in 2023.
  • The Diamondbacks are 5-3 in Pfaadt’s eight starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Pfaadt’s team has won five of his 11 starts.
  • Pfaadt has started 11 contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in two of them.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 53 50 43 4.5 11 7
Scott McGough 51 56.2 69 4.76 13 9
Paul Sewald 51 48 68 3.19 0 25
Kyle Nelson 50 45 56 3 8 0
Kevin Ginkel 44 49 47 2.02 3 3

Padres Hitting Trends

  • The Padres are 29-22 this season in games when they send out two or more home runs.
  • San Diego is 23-8 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has totaled eight or more hits 68 times this season, and has a 47-21 record in those games.
  • San Diego is 49-9 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Padres are 28-21 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 41 games this season and are 28-13 in those matchups.
  • In 26 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 19-7.
  • They have a record of 57-29 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Arizona has a 54-17 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 20 of their 42 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Padres (-168)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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