Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – August 16, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 16, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (63-56) visit the Washington Nationals (53-67) at 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday.

The Nationals play as a home underdog (+133) versus the Red Sox (-160). The over/under for this game is set at 9.

The insights in the following article use the latest odds as of August 16, 2023 at 7:17 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Red Sox vs Nationals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Red Sox -160 +133 9

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 59 times this season and won 33, or 55.9%, of those games.
  • Boston has a record of 10-8, a 55.6% win rate, when favored by -160 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 61.5%.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 58 of its 119 games with a total this season.
  • The Red Sox have an ATS record of 61-58-0 in 119 games with a spread this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.8
HR 10
ERA 4.60
K/9 9.1

Nationals Betting Insights

  • The Nationals have won in 45, or 41.3%, of the 109 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • Washington has a mark of 34-42 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +133 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nationals have a 42.9% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Washington and its opponents have hit the over in 55 of its 119 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 119 games with a line this season, the Nationals have a mark of 64-55-0 against the spread.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.7
HR 11
ERA 4.76
K/9 9.5

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – James Paxton

  • Paxton and his team have a record of 7-9-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Thursday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings without allowing a run on six hits in a matchup with the Kansas City Royals.
  • Paxton will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
  • He has three appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 15 chances this season.
  • Paxton’s team has a record of 4-8 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • In games Paxton has started, his team is 8-8.
  • In Paxton’s 16 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over eight times.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Martin 43 40.1 35 1.34 21 1
Josh Winckowski 42 64 57 2.81 16 2
Kenley Jansen 42 40.1 48 2.90 0 28
Brennan Bernardino 30 39.2 45 2.72 3 0
John Schreiber 25 26.1 31 3.08 10 0

Nationals Probable Pitcher – MacKenzie Gore

  • Gore (6-9 with a 4.62 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 117 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Nationals, his 24th of the season.
  • In his last time out on Wednesday, Aug. 9, the left-hander tossed five innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing six earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Gore is trying for his sixth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 innings per start.
  • In four of his 23 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
  • The Nationals have been the moneyline underdog in 21 of Gore’s starts this season, and they went 8-13 in those matchups.
  • In Gore’s 23 starts, his team is 8-15.
  • Gore has started 23 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in eight of them.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Kyle Finnegan 48 51 51 2.65 8 18
Hunter Harvey 40 41.1 46 3.05 11 9
Jordan Weems 31 37.1 42 2.41 4 0
Andres Machado 25 27.1 24 6.26 2 0
Jose Ferrer 19 17.2 9 3.57 4 0

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • The Red Sox are 26-11 this season in games when they crush two or more long balls.
  • Boston has gone 26-9 in its 35 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club is 51-33 in the games this season it has put up eight or more hits.
  • Boston is 51-10 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Red Sox are 14-10 in the 24 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Nationals Hitting Trends

  • They have won 19 of the 29 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Washington has won 14 of its 18 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 80 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 43-37.
  • Washington has won 38 of its 50 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • In 24 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 14-10

Red Sox vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-160)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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