Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – August 11, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on August 10, 2023

The San Diego Padres (55-60) and Arizona Diamondbacks (57-58) clash in NL West action, on Friday at 9:40 PM ET.

The Padres are favored (-173 moneyline odds to win) when they take the field at the Diamondbacks (+143). The game’s total is 9.

The betting facts in what follows use the latest odds as of August 11, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Padres -173 +143 9

Padres Betting Insights

  • The Padres have won 46, or 52.9%, of the 87 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • San Diego has a record of 19-15, a 55.9% win rate, when favored by -173 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 63.4% chance to win.
  • San Diego’s games have gone over the total in 46 of its 115 chances.
  • The Padres are 55-60-0 ATS in their 115 games with a spread this season.

Padres Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5
HR 16
ERA 4.91
K/9 9.9

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have come away with 27 wins in the 63 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Arizona has a mark of 7-8 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +143 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 41.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 48 of its 115 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have posted a record of 62-53-0 against the spread this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 1-9
Runs Per Game 1.9
HR 6
ERA 4.40
K/9 8.9

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Padres Probable Pitcher – Blake Snell

  • When Snell starts, his team is 11-12-0 against the spread this season.
  • The left-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed four hits in five innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.
  • Snell has 14 starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • In 23 appearances this season, he has finished eight without allowing an earned run.
  • Snell’s team has been victorious in 55.6% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 10-8.
  • Snell’s team has won 10 of his 23 starts this season.
  • Games started by Snell have a 9-13-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Padres Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Steven Wilson 45 48.1 50 3.17 21 0
Josh Hader 44 41.2 63 0.86 0 26
Nick Martínez 42 83.2 75 3.55 14 1
Luís Garcia 42 40.2 43 4.87 9 0
Scott Barlow 40 43.1 51 6.23 1 13

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Ryne Nelson

  • The Diamondbacks are sending Nelson (6-6) out for his 24th start of the season. He is 6-6 with a 5.16 ERA and 80 strikeouts through 122 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out came on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins, when the right-hander threw three innings, surrendering six earned runs while allowing eight hits.
  • Nelson will try to record his 18th outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 5.3 innings per appearance.
  • In two of his 23 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 7-8 record in Nelson’s 15 starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Nelson’s team is 10-13 over his 23 starts.
  • Nelson has had 23 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in 10 of those games.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 49 46.2 37 4.05 9 7
Scott McGough 49 55.1 67 4.23 13 9
Paul Sewald 47 44 63 3.48 0 21
Kyle Nelson 46 41.2 53 3.24 7 0
Kevin Ginkel 40 45 43 2 1 3

Padres Hitting Trends

  • The Padres have put up two or more long balls in 50 games this season, and are 28-22 in those outings.
  • San Diego has put up at least five extra-base hits in 29 games this season, and has gone 21-8 in those outings.
  • The team is 44-20 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • San Diego is 46-9 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Padres are 27-20 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They are 25-12 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Arizona has gone 18-7 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 82 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 53-29.
  • Arizona has a 51-16 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 19 of their 40 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (+143)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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