MJ Melendez leads the Kansas City Royals (37-79) into a matchup against the Boston Red Sox (59-55), after his two-homer performance in a 4-3 defeat to the Red Sox, beginning at 7:10 PM ET on Thursday.
The Red Sox are favored (-237 on the moneyline to win) when they take on the Royals (+197). The matchup has an over/under set at 10.5 total runs.
The betting trends in what follows reference odds valid as of August 10, 2023 at 7:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Royals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -237 | +197 | 10.5 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- This season, the Red Sox have won 29 out of the 54 games, or 53.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Boston has played as favorites of -237 or more twice this season and won both games.
- The Red Sox have a 70.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- So far this season, Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 58 of 114 games with a total.
- The Red Sox are 58-56-0 ATS in their 114 games with a spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 5.76 |
| K/9 | 8.0 |
Royals Betting Insights
- The Royals have been chosen as underdogs in 102 games this year and have walked away with the win 33 times (32.4%) in those games.
- This season, Kansas City has come away with a win five times in 16 chances when named as an underdog of at least +197 or worse on the moneyline.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Royals have a 33.7% chance of pulling out a win.
- Contests with Kansas City has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 55 of 116 chances this season.
- The Royals have an against the spread record of 50-66-0 in 116 games with a line this season.
Royals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 4.34 |
| K/9 | 7.2 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – James Paxton
- Paxton and his team are 6-9-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Friday, when he tossed five innings while giving up four earned runs on nine hits in a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Paxton has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- He has made 14 appearances and finished two of them without allowing an earned run.
- When Paxton starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 3-8.
- Paxton’s team is 7-8 when he starts this season.
- Out of Paxton’s 15 starts with a total this season, eight have hit the over.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Martin | 40 | 37.1 | 32 | 1.45 | 18 | 1 |
| Josh Winckowski | 40 | 62 | 55 | 2.90 | 14 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 39 | 37.1 | 45 | 3.13 | 0 | 25 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 27 | 38 | 44 | 2.61 | 3 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | 22 | 23.2 | 26 | 3.42 | 9 | 0 |
Royals Probable Pitcher – Austin Cox
- Cox (0-1) takes the mound first for the Royals to make his third start of the season.
- His last appearance came out of the bullpen on Friday when the lefty tossed one scoreless inning against the Philadelphia Phillies without giving up a hit.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in nine of his 15 outings this season.
- The Royals were the moneyline underdog for two Cox starts this season — they lost both.
- His team has lost both of the games he’s made an appearance in this season.
- Cox’s two starts with a total this season both went over.
Royals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hernandez | 42 | 55.2 | 66 | 4.20 | 11 | 1 |
| Amir Garrett | 25 | 24.1 | 28 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Wittgren | 25 | 27.1 | 16 | 5.27 | 1 | 0 |
| Tucker Davidson | 20 | 33.2 | 33 | 6.68 | 0 | 2 |
| Dylan Coleman | 17 | 14.1 | 17 | 10.05 | 4 | 0 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox have racked up at least two home runs in 36 games this season, and are 25-11 in those contests.
- Boston has collected five or more extra-base hits in 34 games this season, and has gone 25-9 in those outings.
- The team has notched at least eight hits 80 times this season, and has a 48-32 record in those games.
- Boston is 48-10 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Red Sox have drawn at least five walks in 23 games this season, and are 13-10 in those contests.
Royals Hitting Trends
- They are 13-17 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 29 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 13-16.
- They have won 28 of the 65 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Kansas City has won 25 of its 38 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won four of their 15 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-237)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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